Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 17, 2017
We asked a question about Section 232 in last week’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. The question was, “Do you think President Trump will invoke Section 232 and add duties on steel imports early next year on national security grounds?”
Relatively few steel buyers elected to answer this question, which either suggests they don’t have enough information to form an opinion, or they’ve grown tired of all the speculation and have moved on. The administration promised a decision back in June, then postponed it in the face of strong opposition from steel-consuming industries. The delay opened the door to a surge of imports and made the issue of unfair foreign competition worse. The Commerce Department has until Jan. 18 to get its recommendation on the president’s desk, then he has 90 days to make a decision.
But three revealing comments offered by questionnaire respondents clearly state the prevailing views on Section 232:
1) The president will act on Section 232 and it will trigger a trade war and make U.S. metal users less competitive worldwide.
2) The president will certainly do something, but it may be more of a token gesture.
3) The president has too many other issues to deal with.
In any case, the clock is ticking, and we’ll all know soon.
Tim Triplett helped with the Final Thoughts this evening with the Section 232 information shown above.
Another note regarding our publishing schedule over the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday here in the United States. SMU will publish as normal on Tuesday of this week. We will be closed for Thanksgiving and will not publish on Thursday. Our expectation is that we will publish our newsletter on Sunday, Nov. 26.
During the Thanksgiving Holiday, our website designers will be upgrading our website and improving our mobile application. The website is expected to be down for maintenance late on Wednesday and through Thursday. We expect it to be back online on Friday, Nov. 24.
I will be speaking at the HARDI Annual Conference on Dec. 5 in Las Vegas. I will be at the conference beginning on Sunday evening, Dec. 3 and will return to my office late in the day on Dec. 6.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?