Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 17, 2017
We asked a question about Section 232 in last week’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. The question was, “Do you think President Trump will invoke Section 232 and add duties on steel imports early next year on national security grounds?”
Relatively few steel buyers elected to answer this question, which either suggests they don’t have enough information to form an opinion, or they’ve grown tired of all the speculation and have moved on. The administration promised a decision back in June, then postponed it in the face of strong opposition from steel-consuming industries. The delay opened the door to a surge of imports and made the issue of unfair foreign competition worse. The Commerce Department has until Jan. 18 to get its recommendation on the president’s desk, then he has 90 days to make a decision.
But three revealing comments offered by questionnaire respondents clearly state the prevailing views on Section 232:
1) The president will act on Section 232 and it will trigger a trade war and make U.S. metal users less competitive worldwide.
2) The president will certainly do something, but it may be more of a token gesture.
3) The president has too many other issues to deal with.
In any case, the clock is ticking, and we’ll all know soon.
Tim Triplett helped with the Final Thoughts this evening with the Section 232 information shown above.
Another note regarding our publishing schedule over the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday here in the United States. SMU will publish as normal on Tuesday of this week. We will be closed for Thanksgiving and will not publish on Thursday. Our expectation is that we will publish our newsletter on Sunday, Nov. 26.
During the Thanksgiving Holiday, our website designers will be upgrading our website and improving our mobile application. The website is expected to be down for maintenance late on Wednesday and through Thursday. We expect it to be back online on Friday, Nov. 24.
I will be speaking at the HARDI Annual Conference on Dec. 5 in Las Vegas. I will be at the conference beginning on Sunday evening, Dec. 3 and will return to my office late in the day on Dec. 6.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
When will we see prime scrap become scarce as the worldwide transition to EAF melting increases, especially for HRC production? It's a question I've been asked a lot.
Final Thoughts: The hidden cost of analysis paralysis in the age of uncertainty
With US economic indicators all over the map, it’s no wonder the steel market has experienced a whole lot of analysis paralysis this year.
Final Thoughts
A recurring theme in conversations with some of you and in the comments submitted in our surveys is concerns about demand and uncertainty around tariffs. Where does SMU’s latest opinion polling on President Trump’s tariffs stand? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Final Thoughts
I’ve been getting some calls lately from some of you who want to kick around ideas on where prices might bottom and when.
Final Thoughts
Could an upcoming BRICS meeting spell trouble for President Trump's trade policy?