Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 19, 2018
The first advice I have for steel buyers is don’t panic. Nothing has been announced on 232 yet. Someone mentioned to me this evening that in reality the president hasn’t made a bad decision yet (I am going to ignore Russia – just talking about business related issues). Section 232 may be the first, but the betting is he will figure out a way to keep his promise without alienating the rest of the world and starting a trade war. So, don’t panic. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks and then we will meet again to see what needs to be done next.
Most of the trading companies are doing just that. Taking a breather for a few weeks, letting the market settle a bit and waiting for calmer heads to prevail.
Registration for our March Steel 101 workshop is sold out. If you are interested in sending someone to the Merrillville, Ind., workshop, which includes a tour of the NLMK Portage EAF mill, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will advise if we can squeeze another person into the workshop. I will announce our next workshop date and location soon.
I want to welcome Big River Steel as a corporate sponsor to this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. BRS joins Pacesetter, Bank of America, Crowe Horwath, Heidtman Steel, Nucor, Modern Metals, Magic Coil Products, Mill Steel, MidWest Materials, Red Bud Industries, All Metals Service and Warehousing and Alliance Steel. We now have only three sponsor slots left. If you are interested in becoming a sponsor or exhibitor, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com or myself at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
I will have more about what is being said at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference in Thursday’s issue of SMU.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.