Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 24, 2019
I thought I would depart from my usual routine and talk about something a little different in my final thoughts this evening. Time, and time management, have always been big issues in my life. It seemed natural for me to work 80-hour weeks and to think nothing of it. It brought me success in my career and ruined my marriage… So, I have been spending some time thinking of about what is the proper approach to work and time management.
I stumbled across an article that went back and looked at time management from an ancient philosopher’s perspective. The article title is: How to Be Productive, According to Ancient Philosophy (What Socrates Plato, and Confucius Understood About Time). I have linked to the article if you want to read it in its entirety. I am only going to summarize it for you.
The article cites seven productivity lessons:
- Don’t Try To Do More: Socrates said, “Beware the barrenness of a busy life.”
- Complete 3-4 Important Tasks Each Day: Plato said, “Better a little which is well done, than a great deal imperfectly.”
- Enjoy Doing The Work: Aristotle said, “Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work.”
- Eliminate Distractions: Marcus Aurelius said, “If you seek tranquility, do less. Or (more accurately) do what’s essential. Do less, better. Because most of what we do or say is not essential. If you can eliminate it, you’ll have more tranquility.”
- Keep Your Ego in Check: Plutarch said, “Neither blame or praise yourself.”
- Keep Moving Forward: Confucius said, “It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you don’t stop.”
- Rely on a System: Lao Tzu said, “Great acts are made up of small deeds.”
A note to those thinking of attending the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference at the end of August. Our room blocks are sold out at the Atlanta Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel, we have only a few rooms left at the Renaissance Gateway Hotel and we have about 90 rooms left at the SpringHill Suites Gateway Hotel. There are still plenty of rooms at the Atlanta Airport Marriott Hotel, which is located about one mile away from the convention center.
We are also close to selling out our May 14-15 Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Davenport, Iowa, and will include a tour of the SSAB steel mill. If you are interested in attending, please go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101
I am speaking to the Association of Specialty Cold Rolled Steel Producers at Reynolds Plantation in Georgia on Friday morning. I will be back in my office on Monday. Next trip will be to Chicago where I will be speaking to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch on the 8th and then the following day I will be at the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner on the 9th.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?