Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 3, 2020
The question I am getting right now is, “Where is price momentum headed?” Good question.
The SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher prices over the next 30 days. However, we are not blind, and we have seen prices stall here at the beginning of the year. The way I am looking at this “stall” is the market digesting the rapid rise in spot prices we have seen since the end of October. Spot prices are up $100 to $140 per ton on hot rolled. The low point for hot rolled was $470 per ton reported on Oct. 22, 2019. This evening we are reporting HRC spot prices as averaging $585 per ton, down $5 per ton from one week ago.
I am looking at momentum every day. I do not want to be the catalyst that pushes prices lower, but as many steel buyers know – it is rare for flat rolled prices to move sideways for too long. Prices seem to be either moving up, or they are moving down….
There is a lot of anxiety at the buyer level as they sit and wait for a sign of which way the price winds are blowing. As they sit, they are aware of the decent shipment rates moving out of their facilities. As of the end of December, SMU had service center inventories as being “balanced” to slightly higher than balanced. In other words, from our perspective there does not need to be an immediate buying binge, with the possible wild card being how strong demand is and how quickly material will begin to move.
I am also looking out to April when U.S. Steel will take down Great Lakes and begin a 48-day outage on their #4 blast furnace at Gary Works. They are building inventories of slabs, so there should not be a huge impact on day one, but we need to watch this and other developments within the industry carefully.
Speaking of U.S. Steel, this evening the mill called to inform me that David Burritt, CEO of U.S. Steel, will participate in a fireside chat with me at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. This will be the first time the USS CEO has participated in our conference. With the Mon Valley project, the purchase of 49.9 percent of Big River Steel and the completion of their EAF in Birmingham for their pipe mill…. Well, the mill is making some interesting moves and I think our attendees will be quite interested in what he has to say.
I looked at the conference registration statistics earlier today and we are running one month ahead of 2019 rates. We already have as many executives registered as we did in mid-March of last year. You can go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit to learn more, and you can click here to register. Remember, SMU and CRU members receive discounts for their memberships, and any company that registers more than one person receives an extra $100 per person discount. We kept prices the same as 2019 – even as we have expanded the conference and the services we will be providing. Come join 1,200 of your industry friends (or new friends) in Atlanta on Aug. 24-26, AND if your company is involved in the aluminum business stay the week to participle in the CRU Aluminum Market Update conference, which will be held at the Marriott Gateway next door to the Georgia International Convention Center.
Also, please note that we have a limited number of sponsorship slots available, and we have a number of exhibition spaces as well. For more information about becoming a sponsor or exhibitor at the largest flat rolled and plate steel conference in North America, please contact Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com
I will be in Tampa for the balance of this week participating in the Port of Tampa Steel Conference.
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John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?