Steel Prices
SMU Price Ranges: Sheet Prices Move Lower, No Bottom Yet
Written by David Schollaert
August 29, 2023
Sheet prices have fallen this week, after a small pause last week when prices saw mixed results. Tags have now been largely trending lower since July.
SMU’s average hold-rolled coil (HRC) price slipped to $725 per ton ($36.25 per ton), down $25 per ton from a week ago.
Cold-rolled saw the widest decline vs. last week, down $35 per ton, while galvanized and Galvalume base prices were both $20 per ton lower, respectively. Plate was largely flat, off just $5 per ton week on week (WoW).
Market participants said deep discounting on HRC is still underway, with some sourcing larger tons (think 5,000-10,000 tons) around $640 per ton. Exposure to automotive may be the culprit, explaining why some might be looking to lock up tons now.
Sentiment is still mixed, despite the declines. Concerns regarding second-half demand are gaining momentum, however, driven by growing uncertainty about United Auto Workers (UAW) union negotiations, and what that could mean for steel demand.
Others say they remain a bit less deterred by the potential of a strike, confident a deal will be reached, adding that present demand is more an indication of seasonality and anticipate demand to improve after Labor Day.
SMU has kept all its sheet momentum indicators pointed lower until a clear trend emerges. Our plate momentum indicator remains at neutral.
Hot-Rolled Coil
The SMU price range is $670–780 per net ton ($33.50–39.00 per cwt), with an average of $725 per ton ($36.25 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range decreased $30 per ton vs. one week ago, while the top end of our range was $20 per ton lower WoW. Our overall average is $25 per ton lower compared to the prior week. Our price momentum indicator for hot-rolled coil is still pointing lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 3–6 weeks
Cold-Rolled Coil
The SMU price range is $900–1,020 per net ton ($45.00–51.00 per cwt), with an average of $960 per ton ($48.00 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was down $50 per ton WoW, while the top end was down $20 per ton compared to a week ago. Our overall average is down $35 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled coil is still pointing lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 5–8 weeks
Galvanized Coil
The SMU price range is $900–1,000 per net ton ($45.00–50.00 per cwt), with an average of $950 per ton ($47.50 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was $20 per ton lower vs. last week, while the top end of our range was also down $20 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is down $20 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel is pointing lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $997–1,097 per ton with an average of $1,047 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks
Galvalume Coil
The SMU price range is $920–1,020 per net ton ($46.00–51.00 per cwt), with an average of $970 per ton ($48.50 per cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was down $30 per ton vs. last week, while the top end of the range was $10 per ton lower WoW. Our overall average was down $20 per ton compared to one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel is still pointing lower, meaning SMU expects prices will decline more over the next 30 days.
Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,214–1,314 per ton with an average of $1,264 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.
Galvalume Lead Times: 6–8 weeks
Plate
The SMU price range is $1,350–1,560 per net ton ($67.50–78.00 per cwt), with an average of $1,455 per ton ($72.75 per cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of our range was unchanged compared to the week prior, while the top end of our range was $10 per ton lower vs. last week. Our overall average is down $5 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate remains at neutral, meaning we are unsure of what direction prices will go over the next 30 days.
Plate Lead Times: 3–8 weeks
SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
David Schollaert
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