SMU Data and Models

March service center shipments and inventories report
Written by Estelle Tran
April 15, 2024
Flat Rolled = 58.3 shipping days of supply
Plate = 60.6 shipping days of supply
Flat Rolled
US service center flat-rolled steel inventories edged up in March as shipments remained low. At the end of March, service centers carried 58.3 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 56.6 shipping days in February. Flat-rolled steel supply was also up y/y from 52.7 shipping days in March 2023. Inventories also rose slightly in terms of months of supply to 2.78 months in March from 2.7 months in February.
Most service centers had 21 shipping days in March, though some companies had 20 shipping days with the Easter holiday. February also had 21 shipping days. The lower shipments in March could be a sign that demand is still weak or that service center customers were also destocking last month.
Flat-rolled steel prices reached a bottom in mid-March. At about the same time, hot-rolled coil lead times hit their lowest level at 4.93 weeks, according to the March 13 SMU survey data. Prices and lead times have been on the upswing since. The April 10 SMU survey pegged HRC lead times at 5.3 weeks.

In March, the amount of flat-rolled steel on order rose with opportunistic, large-volume deals at the bottom of the market. At the end of March, service centers saw shipping days of supply on order up vs. February. Flat-rolled steel inventories on order saw a notable boost m/m in March.
Inventories combined with material on order indicate ample supply relative to demand levels. In the latest SMU survey, 68% of service centers said customer releases were flat y/y, 23% said they were releasing less steel y/y, and 9% said they were shipping more. Service centers continue to report weaker-than-expected demand so far this year.

Plate
With demand still slow, US service centers’ plate supply increased in March. At the end of the month, service centers carried 60.6 shipping days of plate supply, up from 58.8 shipping days of supply in February. Plate inventories represented 2.89 months of supply in March, up from 2.8 months of supply in February. In March 2023, service centers stocked 41.0 shipping days of plate supply.
Market contacts said demand remains relatively weak, and mills have been eager to make deals. At the same time, plate mills have been trying to control production, which has helped to pull back on the recent w/w price declines. SMU’s April 10 survey recorded plate mill lead times at 5.92 weeks, up from 5.41 weeks a month ago.
The total volume of plate on order was up slightly in March, but with the lower daily shipping rate, the material on order represents more supply. At the end of March, service centers shipping days of plate supply on order was up vs. February. Plate inventories on order were also up m/m in March.

In January and February, plate intake at service centers exceeded shipments, but in March, intake fell back below shipment levels. While the total volume of plate in inventory declined m/m, it is still up significantly y/y and represents much more supply with the low daily shipping rate. The amount of plate in inventory and on order seems to be high relative to demand levels but could be in preparation for a seasonal demand uptick.

Estelle Tran
Read more from Estelle TranLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.

Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.