Steel exports drop to 2-year low in December

Where did the steel go?

The majority of steel exported from the US goes to US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. The bulk of December exports went to Mexico (54%), while 39% went to Canada. Other notable destinations included Brazil, the Dominican Republic, China, South Korea, Israel, Germany, the United Kingdom, Guatemala, the Bahamas, and Belgium, each receiving 1% or less of total December exports.

Visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor for more detailed export data by product and country.

Smoothing out the data

Looking at steel exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can better highlight trends by smoothing out monthly variations (Figure 2, left). After reaching a five-year high of 887,000 st in July 2023, 3MMA export volumes sharply declined in the second half of 2023, then partially recovered through mid-2024. The 3MMA has trended back downward each month since August, falling to a near-two-year low of 673,000 st in December.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further showcase long-term volumes (Figure 2, right). On this annualized basis, steel exports have shifted lower since early 2024, but still remain strong relative to volume seen through 2019-22. The 12MMA edged lower through December, falling to an 18-month low of 770,000 st. Compare this to the five-and-a-half-year high 12MMA we saw last February of 805,000 st.

Sheet and plate exports

Focusing on flat-rolled exports, December saw significant declines in most of the sheet and plate products we track, with many products falling to multi-month lows. Notable movements through December include:

• Cold-rolled sheet exports slipped 28% m/m to the lowest rate of 2024.
• Exports of galvanized sheet declined 14% from November to a two-year low.
• Cut-to-length plate exports eased 5% to a one year low.
• Other metallic coated exports fell 4%, marking a four-and-a-half-year low.
• Exports of coiled plates surged 50% to an 18-month high.
• Hot rolled exports rebounded 11% to a two-month high.

Compared to the same month one year prior, December exports were mixed by product, with three products increasing and three declining. Significant year-on-year (y/y) changes were witnessed in exports of plates in coils (+57%), hot-rolled coil (-8%), and cut-to-length plate (+8%).

December exports for all six products were lower than their respective 3MMA and 12MMA, with the exception of plates in coils.

Figure 4 shows a history of exports by product on a 3MMA basis.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.