New York state manufacturing rebounds in February

“Manufacturing activity edged higher in New York State in February,” said Richard Deitz, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “Input price increases picked up to the fastest pace in nearly two years, and optimism about the outlook dropped noticeably.”

The new orders index increased by 20 points to 11.4, pointing to a moderate gain in orders. The shipments index moved 15.9 points higher to 14.2, while unfilled orders held steady, pausing the slide they had been on.

The inventories index remained positive at 8.7, a signal that inventories are still growing. The delivery times index came in at 5.4, suggesting that delivery times were slightly longer, and the supply availability was -2.2, pointing to even tighter supply readiness, according to the survey.

In terms of labor, the number of employees index dipped 4.8 eight points to -3.6, suggesting that employment levels waned. The average workweek index remained negative at -1.2 but saw a major boost in hours worked, climbing 13.9 points vs. January, the survey found.

To smooth out monthly fluctuations, the Index can be recalculated on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) to better highlight trends. As a 3MMA, the Index fell 8.5 points from January to February to -1.6 (Figure 1). Recall that nearly a year ago, the 3MMA Index dropped to -22.3 in March, the fourth-lowest figure within our 15-year data history (only greater than the months of April, May, and June 2020).