Market Data
May 15, 2026
SMU Survey: Sentiment Indices reflect continued optimism
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remained in strongly optimistic territory this week, based on responses from steel executives in our latest market survey. Both indices continue to indicate steel buyers are confident in their companies’ prospects today, as well as in the months ahead.
The Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index marginally eased following the multi-year high set in our prior survey. Meanwhile, the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index increased to the highest reading seen in over a year.
Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. The responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics tracked since 2008.
Current Sentiment
Current Sentiment slipped to +69 this week, down four points from the three-year high recorded in late April (Figure 1). Sentiment has recovered 17 points since the beginning of the year, now 43 points above the five-year low of +26 set last October. This time last year it was significantly lower at +35.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment rebounded eight points from our prior survey to +68, shifting from a two-month low to a 16-month high (Figure 2). This is seven points higher than the first reading of 2026 and 22 points above the near-three-year low of +46 set last May.
What respondents are saying:
“[Excellent current and future outlook.] We have over 12-month lead times and an 18-month backlog.”
“[Excellent current outlook, good future outlook.] In some cases, price isn’t as much an issue as usual, we seem to be doing very well. Future margins will shrink as our inventory costs go up.”
“[Good current and future outlooks.] Outside of sheet products, we are competitive. We will be able to complete more customer orders as our inventory position improves. Right now we are a little late due to mill orders shipping late.”
“[Good current outlook.] If the steel mills can get us the steel we ordered on time.”
“[Good future outlook.] Especially if HRC retreats back to $1,000/ton or below.”
“[Fair current and future outlook.] We need imported steel.”
“[Poor current and future outlook.] Imports are over 50% of our business and are under trade tariffs and attack by US mills. Unless trade laws improve from imported steel, it will be tough to be successful.”
Sentiment trends
To better highlight trends, Sentiment can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term fluctuations.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased for the 14th consecutive survey to +64.61, the highest level recorded in over two years (Figure 3, left). For reference, last October this measure fell to a five-year low of +32.09, and in October 2021 it reached a record high of +80.83.
The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the fourth survey in a row to a 14-month high of +62.66 (Figure 3, right). Although strong compared to the last year, this measure is on the lower side historically. Compare this to the near-five-year low of +50.11 recorded in June 2025 and the all-time high of +74.67 set in May 2022.
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
