Ferrous scrap tags rise amid short supply, tariff volatility

This was due to tariff demand and short scrap supplies. He noted many dealers were still short scrap and late filling orders at the end of February, among other factors.

A second source chalked up the scrap price increases this month chiefly to the lack of supply.  

“Much of the country’s scrap dealers were behind on February orders going into March due to lack of material,” he said. “Increased March prices and better weather should help this situation.”

However, the first source pointed out that “scrap has historically not shared in much of the price upside that tariffs bring. They didn’t in 2018 and may share even less in 2025.”

A third source said the March scrap market didn’t rise as much as originally thought, mainly due to the blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico being delayed until April.  

“It was the shipments of prime scrap from Canada which kept busheling prices in check,” he added.

Regarding the prospect of those tariffs influencing the March trade, the first source commented that “there were effectively no exports of scrap to Mexico, which created a surplus in Texas.”

And Canadian dealers “were trying to liquidate whatever scrap they could into the US before any tariffs on scrap might take effect.”

SMU’s March scrap pricing stands at:

• Busheling at $460-490 per gross ton (gt), averaging $475/gt, up $27.50 from February.
• Shredded at $440-470/gt, averaging $455/gt, up $22.50 from February.
• HMS at $375-415/gt, averaging $395/gt, up $17.50 from February.

Outlook

So, where are we heading next month?

“It’s probably the top of the market, but who knows in this world where things change every day,” the first source said. 

“We’ll have to see where (steel) demand is by early April,” he added. “If the operating rate continues to rise, we should have a reasonably stable market even if mills cancel unshipped March orders at the end of the month.”

The third source said the outcome of the blanket tariff situation in Canada and Mexico could affect April prices.

“If these tariffs are imposed in April, then prices could rise again,” he noted.