Features
AISI: Raw steel output edges higher, nears six-month high
Written by Brett Linton
April 14, 2025
Raw steel mill output increased last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Production is now at the second-highest weekly total recorded so far this year, nearing one of the strongest levels logged over the past six months.
Through the week ending April 12, domestic steel mill production was estimated at 1,689,000 short tons (st) (Figure 1). Production increased by 33,000 tons, or 2.0%, compared to the previous week.
Last week’s production was 1.7% above the year-to-date weekly average of 1,661,000 st per week, but 0.4% lower than levels seen one year ago.
The mill capability utilization rate last week was 75.2%, up week over week (w/w) from 74.4%, but down from 76.3% this time last year. Since the start of 2025, the capability utilization rate has averaged 74.6%.
Year-to-date production now stands at 24,213,000 st with a capability utilization rate of 74.6%. This is 1.3% below the same period last year, when 24,534,000 st had been produced at a rate of 75.9%.
Raw production increased this week in all five regions, as reported by AISI:
- Northeast – 127,000 st (up 10,000 st w/w)
- Great Lakes – 549,000 st (up 15,000 st)
- Midwest – 248,000 st (up 3,000 st)
- South – 697,000 st (up 3,000 st)
- West – 68,000 st (up 2,000 st)
Editor’s note: The raw steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated and should be used primarily to assess production trends. The graphic included in this report shows unadjusted weekly data. The monthly AISI “AIS 7” report is available by subscription and provides a more detailed summary of domestic steel production.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025
AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.