Export scrap market weak so far in April

Most of the recent activity has come from Northern Europe. The last US sale to Turkey was at an HMS 80/20 price equivalent of $366 per metric ton (nt) CFR last week. The price was down from a March sale of $382/mt CFR. 

In Europe, prices dropped into the mid-$350s, but the trade was a bit surprised of a new sale from the Baltic at $350/mt CFR Turkey, supposedly for HMS 80/20. It was unclear whether other suppliers will match this price. But this was soon followed by a sale from the UK at $335/mt. 

It should be noted the price of billets on the international markets have not increased and are still competitive with scrap. Mills in Turkey are buying cargoes of billets and this is denting demand for scrap.

Another thing contributing to weakness in the export scrap market is the fall in the US dollar vs. the euro. This could lead to lower prices and restrict margins on European scrap.  

Weak into May?

Given this weakness in the markets abroad, it’s likely the May markets in North America will decline, at least for obsolete scrap grades. The price of HMS delivered to export terminals along the East Coast has been dropping in April.  There have a couple of $10-per-gross-ton price decreases and this has lessened the flows.    

Another potential headwind threatening international marine transportation is an impending US proposal that would penalize Chinese-flagged vessels and fleets which use them.

This would raise port fees for these vessels by $1 million or more in some instances. There have been objections to this order by a host of trade and shipping groups. They have suggested serious amendments to this policy.

For ferrous scrap and other bulk materials, this could raise freights by substantial margins. 

SMU consulted an exporter who commonly ships ferrous scrap in bulk to various locations in the Western Hemisphere.

He calculated the freight rates of Handymax-sized ships could increase by $15-45/mt. The increase for Supramax vessels could be $10-30/mt. These are the two sizes of vessel usually employed to carry ferrous scrap cargoes.

There was a recent meeting in Turkey about the steel industry’s plight. Their domestic market has been sluggish and international sales prices have stagnated well below $600/mt.

Most attendees were pessimistic about a rebound in prices. There was talk of production cuts if the situation persists, according to sources.