Analysis
April 17, 2025
Written by Ethan Bernard
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
Judging from many of our responses, the near-term outlook in general is about as clear as a summer day in San Francisco.
Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.
Metallus reported improved year-over-year profitability in the third quarter, but expects seasonal softness and planned maintenance to weigh on fourth-quarter results. The specialty metals producer pointed to continued demand and a new defense contract as supports for growth.
The US Department of Commerce has determined sizable dumping rates against Austria, Taiwan, and the United Arab Emirates in the trade case investigating imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG). Recall the dumping investigations and a companion subsidy investigation were launched in April at the request of the US OCTG Manufacturers Association (USOMA), U.S. Steel, and the United Steelworkers.
Construction has been an uneven market over the last year, but data centers have been a bright spot. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) sat down with SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden last week for a Community Chat. In a far-ranging conversation, Simonson spoke on the current state of construction and wider issues in the economy. (For SMU Premium subscribers, you can watch replay of the entire interview here.)