Analysis
May 6, 2025
Written by Ethan Bernard
| First quarter ended March 31 | 2025 | 2024 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $436.0 | $488.4 | -10.7% |
| Net earnings (loss) | $17.3 | $20.0 | -13.5% |
| Per diluted share | $0.20 | $0.23 | -13.0% |
Brazilian miner and steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) increased steel production in the third quarter, but lower overseas shipments and a less favorable domestic product mix weighed on its quarterly results. The company also said renewed import pressure limited further price pass-throughs.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen this month, the 14th consecutive increase. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $1,375 per short ton (st) this week, up $25/st from last week and a $95/st increase from a month earlier.
US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.
Could two new steel projects signal a new direction in the marketplace? Both Mesabi Metallics’ recently announced steel facility in Iowa and the Hyundai-POSCO’s proposed mill in Louisiana are major undertakings. You don’t spitball a major steel mill and then start producing the next day. From initial concept to site selection and on up to the first melt, there is a labyrinth of permitting, planning, and construction to navigate before the first heat.
Ferrous scrap prices rose in November across all grades SMU tracks, though prices varied widely by region. “Marketwise, we saw disparate market movements between regions in the November trade, which wrapped up earlier this week,” one source told SMU. “It was a mixed bag, depending on the region and grade.” The source added that export pricing also rose over the course of last week, “but much less than the domestic market.” Demand from US mills is strong and “there is probably more lift to be expected in the market between now and the January trade," he continued.