Final Thoughts

Ethan Bernard, SMU Team

Final Thoughts

Written by Ethan Bernard

May 22, 2025

The steel industry doesn’t often lend itself to philosophical reflection, at least in my experience. That is, you’re dealing with something you can touch. You make things, build boats, cars, civilizations. Things get very hot, and sometimes cold, even super heavy. You have to pay attention, keeping away from navel-gazing in order to stay safe. Well, today gives us a special opportunity.

For anyone who ever wandered into a freshman philosophy class and is familiar with trees falling in woods without a witness, I offer the following conundrum:

If a CFIUS review is submitted to President Trump, but with its recommendation unknown to the general public, can it still affect a stock price?

For my article on the results of the second Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review, click here. Tl;dr: the review is complete, but the decision is unknown.

Luckily, in this case we don’t have to check in with a philosophy professor, ChatGPT, or even the SMU Magic 8-ball. The answer to that stock question would seem to be “yes.”

U.S. Steel stock finished up $0.84, nearly 2%, to $42.86 per share on Thursday vs. the previous close on the NYSE. Was this all due to the second CFIUS review? I’ll leave that to the big financial brains.

Trump now has 15 days to OK or block the deal, but a Reuters article said that timeline could “slip.”

What’s interesting to me in this turn of the screw is that it exemplifies a quality crucial to all, no matter their philosophical bent: patience.

This afternoon I received a press release from the United Steelworkers (USW) union, continuing to urge Trump to block the deal.

It has become a kind of ritual to receive these releases. Nippon will praise the deal. The USW and Cliffs will blast it. Things will move forward. Some kind of deadline will appear. Next thing you know, we are looking at said deadline recede in the rearview mirror.

I remember when it was first announced that USS was up for sale back in August 2023. Biden was in the White House. I dropped my horse off at the livery stable, and chop-chopped it to the office. Upon arrival, I told the copy boy to look lively. Today was going to be a busy day at the paper!

Since that time, Nippon emerged as the preferred suitor. And this suitor has been sent on a roller coaster ride that has continued to the present moment.

It was a done deal. There was no chance. There was half a chance. Or maybe the outcome would be something completely unexpected?

That curveball option seems even more likely with the new resident in the White House. Since “Liberation Day” last month, it has been a tale of the tariffs. Will this unpredictability continue with whatever finale to the USS deal awaits us?

Far from an endpoint, “Liberation Day” was just the start of a madcap tariff ride that is still in progress as I write this. How will the final chapter of the USS/Nippon deal play out against this backdrop?

Well, it looks like we’ll have to wait a little longer to find out.  

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

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