SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers

Every two weeks, SMU polls steel buyers asking if domestic mills are negotiable on prices for new spot orders. This week, 83% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order, up 24 percentage points from our previous survey (Figure 1).

Recall that mills held the pricing power back in February and March as tariff headlines pushed the market higher. That power shifted back to buyers across April and May, when negotiation rates rose to multi-month highs. In early June, another round of tariff headlines again resulted in a firmer pricing stance from mills, but the balance has shifted back toward buyers over the last two weeks.

Negotiation rates by product

Negotiation rates rebounded for all four sheet products we track, rising to some of the highest rates we’ve seen this year. Plate rates continued to rise, hitting a 19-month high this week (Figure 2). Current rates are as follows:

• Hot rolled: 84% of buyers said mills are negotiable on price, up 25 percentage points from two weeks ago. For comparison, the highest rate seen this year was 94% in late May.
• Cold rolled: 72%, up 30 points.
• Galvanized: 83%, up 19 points.
• Galvalume: 87%, up 26 points.
• Plate: 100%, up eight points to the highest rate since November 2023.

Steel buyer remarks:

“Negotiable on large [sheet] inquiries.”

“We are having some mills call and fish for [plate] tons.”

“Some are [negotiable on hot rolled].”

“Not yet [on hot rolled], but they need orders.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.