Mixed bids, outages, and full inventories cloud October scrap settlement

In the south, several mills are offering to buy shredded down $10/gt, and HMS and other grades at sideways prices. Busheling is being sought at down $20/gt from last month. However, several of SMU’s contacts in that area said they are reluctant to sell shredded other than at sideways pricing. This resistance has surprised some buyers, as recent predictions were for much weaker prices. There were reports of several outages, along with relatively good scrap inventories at mills.

Heading north into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, expectations are for weaker prices. One source told SMU that dealers in the area are looking to cut prices by $20/gt across the board. But there have been no official buys.     

If shredded does go sideways and busheling does trade down $20/gt, several mills will be paying the same price for each grade. This happens rarely but usually does not last very long. It speaks to the weakness in demand for HRC.

October may be the last chance for buyers to secure lower scrap prices before winter arrives. In the last three years, January-March scrap prices increased $80-100/gt from their November/December lows. The market is in that same position in 2025.