Final Thoughts

Of course, like any holiday table, there’s bound to be a little disagreement.

Take, for example, these two views on pricing:

“No reason to let off the gas pedal early in 2026.”

vs.

“I’m probably a bit of a ‘steel bear’ at the moment, but I don’t think demand is nearly strong enough to support higher pricing.”

While some see upward momentum continuing, others think lackluster demand will end up weighing down tags. We’ll have to wait and see who turns out to be right. In the meantime, the conversation continues, and we’re happy you’re all a part of it.

By the way, a “steel bear” might not be a bad holiday gift for that special industry person in your life.

In any case, I know the steel community is an optimistic bunch on the whole. So, with 63% of respondents saying demand is stable, and prices ticking up… that’s not a bad way to slide into the holiday season.

Considering the roller coaster that 2025 has been, we can’t wait to see what’s right around the corner.

Let’s see what these respondents had to say!

(If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.)

How is demand for your products?

“Demand has picked up compared to some very slow times earlier this year.”

“A new normal is setting up in the spot market. Customers are buying what they need when they need it.”

“Orders keep coming but are smaller in size.”

“It’s been weak.”

“Stable at the moment.”

“These rate cuts aren’t translating to more cap-ex spends… at least not yet.”

“We’ve seen growth through regional expansion, but not so much from overall economic demand.”

When do you think steel prices will peak?

“Limited supply in Q4. Slightly improving demand. Service center inventory low.”

“Upward momentum and pressure, fueled also by scrap recovery.”

“Hot mill projects and curtailments will be over. Mills will want tons in January again.”

“I think there’s too little demand to support much more in price increases.”

“Depends on if demand improves.”

“Mills closed order books too early. Demand is not ready to come back with any momentum. Supply will continue to outpace demand in 1st half of 2026.”

“There is a chance of a rally starting this month and extending to May or June. The inventory liquidation, while appropriate for the moment, was overdone – and there should be a reaction.”

“Not enough demand for increases to stick.”

“Mills will take the momentum and try to capitalize on the Q1 optimism.”

“Upward momentum and pressure, fueled also by scrap recovery.”

“Restocking efforts.”

“We will go through the unavoidable Q1 price increase, as usual.”

“Expecting pent-up demand to begin recovering Q1’26.”

“Unless there is a demand at the beginning of Q1, it will drop back again.”

“Mills will take the momentum and try to capitalize on the Q1 optimism.”

“Buckle up.”

Where do you think HRC prices will be in two months?

“Demand is still off and no one is buying stock.”

“Demand pickup.”

“Growing HR Capacity.”

“I think we’ll finish this year on the low side.”

“Little demand and holiday season will keep a lid on mill prices.”

“Some improvement, but not much with demand being so weak.”

“Will go up slightly from where we are and then start to settle in late January/early February.”

“Fundamentals still bad, propped up by (and also weakened by!) tariffs.”

“Think they have a little room to move up but not much.”

“I expect prices to increase by about $100 ton before leveling out. If domestic mills increase the price too much, they begin to open the door for imports that will then drive the market price down.”

“Mills will push the envelope.”

“We’re thinking pricing will erode heading into 2026. We might be an outlier (a Grinch, even?), but the simple supply > demand dynamic is scary.”

“Tariff protection for favored industry.”

“There is not enough demand to take prices much higher save a large unforeseen event.”

“It will take two to three more increase letters to get them to stick in the market.”