Canadian PM Carney sees no tariff deal with US in the short-term

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the US probably won’t reduce tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods from Canada anytime soon.

The official reason: Tariff negotiations have been rolled into broader talks about the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The trade pact is up for review in 2026.

The unofficial reason: A deal was close. But then a TV ad run by the province of Ontario in October angered President Trump. It featured former US President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

“It was the case that we were close to an agreement. We didn’t get that agreement. From our perspective, the terms of that agreement are still on the table,” Carney said. That’s according to a quote in The Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper.

“If the US wanted to sit down this weekend, we could sit down this weekend and hammer out a sectoral deal. I’m confident of that from our side,” he said.

“My judgment is that that is going to roll into the broader CUSMA negotiations,” Carney added.

USMCA is referred to as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in Canada.

Carney made the remarks on Thursday in Ottawa during a joint press conference with Ontario Premier Doug Ford. In video footage of the event, Ford maintained that the Ontario provincial government made “the best ad that’s ever been run.”

Why it matters

Canada has historically been the largest supplier of imported steel to the US. That’s in large part because of tightly integrated North American supply chains.

Case in point: Canada shipped 6.56 million short tons (st) of steel to the US in 2024, according to US government figures. Brazil was the second largest supplier of foreign steel. The South American nation shipped 4.50 million st of steel to the US last year. Mexico was third, with 3.52 million st.

Import data for 2025 is not complete. Canada has shipped 4.40 million st to the US year to date. Canada’s participation in the US steel market, however, was sharply curtailed after Trump increased Section 232 tariffs to 50% in June.

There had been speculation that Trump would reduce the tariffs. But as Wells Fargo Managing Director Timna Tanners noted on an SMU/AMU Community Chat on Wednesday, there are no signs that Trump plans to back off his tariffs on imported steel. (In other words, no steel TACO. And probably no aluminum TACO either.)

Recall that US steel prices fell sharply in 2019, when Trump in his first term lifted S232 tariffs from Canada ahead of USMCA being implemented in 2020.

Michael Cowden

Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.