Canada
January 22, 2026
SMU Community Chat: Imports collapse, market tightens as 50% tariffs reshape market
Written by Laura Miller
US steel imports have fallen sharply under the new 50% Section 232 tariff regime. Jerry Richardson, general director of CSN LLC, discussed on an SMU Community Chat this week how the market is now structurally tighter and more volatile than at any point in the past decade.
“Everybody’s down,” said Richardson. He pointed to significant declines across hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, and Galvalume sheet. Total monthly imports have plunged from the long-steady 2.0 million to 2.1 million tons to roughly 1.4 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Vietnam, Brazil, and Canada are seeing the steepest declines.
Richardson, a month shy of calling himself a 40-year veteran of the steel industry, discussed how tariff stacking is hitting coated products especially hard. “For us to bring in galvanized coils, we’d be paying 241% in the stacking arrangement,” he said, citing the combination of anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVDs) and the new 50% Section 232 tariff rate. Importers, he noted, are largely absorbing the cost themselves rather than passing it to downstream customers.
Richardson believes reshoring remains more theory than reality. “I don’t know yet,” he said when asked whether tariffs have attracted new investment. Foreign direct investment dipped early in 2025 before recovering, while entrenched global supply chains continue to resist rapid realignment. “With so many long-term established supply chains globally, it’s hard to make that change so quickly,” he remarked.
Canada and Mexico are bracing for their own adjustments ahead of the upcoming USMCA-2.0 review. Mexico continues to face scrutiny over melt-and-pour rules and circumvention concerns. Canada is preparing new tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) that could slash imports from non-FTA partners to 20% of 2024 levels. “Maybe something will change with Canada, and it’s certainly not going to be in the first half,” Richardson said, pushing back on speculation that tariffs might ease.
He also highlighted shifting dynamics in Brazil, where CSN is based. He noted the country remains one of the few with which the US maintains a positive trade balance. But the environment has grown more challenging as Chinese steel and electric vehicles flood the Brazilian market. “They’re sending vessels of electric vehicles and setting them free in Brazil,” he said. He added that domestic producers like CSN are already pursuing AD actions, though final rulings may not come until late this year or beyond.
Richardson feels tariff policy is moving faster than the downstream consequences. “It doesn’t seem like there’s always a step two,” he commented. Tariffs are imposed, but then we move on – even when it adds 50% to products we don’t even make enough of, he said. He named tinplate as a prime example: US demand is more than 2 million tons per year, while domestic production sits below 600,000 tons. “Why do we have a tariff on tin?” he questioned, when it’s just adding 50% to the cost for the consumer.
Quotas, not tariffs, are the most effective and least disruptive tool for managing imports, according to Richardson. Under a quota, he said, importers would prioritize value-added grades rather than flooding the market with base-gauge material. “Quotas are the best solution, and tariffs are terrible,” he stated.
Meanwhile, the US remains the world’s most expensive steel market. “We stand alone as the highest priced market in the world,” he said. Still, “If the price gets too high here, you’re going to attract [import] tons – but under 50% tariffs, the math rarely works,” he noted.
On pricing, Richardson pointed to the industry’s new structural floor. With consolidation, mill discipline, and domestic sheet repeatedly testing the $1,000/ton mark, he suggested the new market bottom may sit closer to $800/ton.
Demand signals remain mixed, according to Richardson, but data center demand continues to surge. With nearly 3,000 US facilities planned or under construction, and a steel intensity of roughly 2,000 tons per 100,000 square feet, demand is rising fast. “The cloud is really just some other guy’s computer,” he joked – one that now requires thousands of tons of steel per site. Some hyperscale projects could reach 1 million square feet or more, with power requirements rivaling an EAF, he noted.
As the market heads into spring, Richardson expects tightness to persist. With imports throttled and domestic mills running disciplined, he warned that volatility is now baked into the system.
