Analysis
February 18, 2026
Market expects mill hikes to stick as seasonal demand increases: plate sources
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Once wintery weather gives way to sunnier spring conditions, plate sources foresee the market accepting the $50-60 per short ton spot price increases issued by Nucor Plate Group, Oregon Steel Mills, and SSAB.
Right now, market sources are reporting delayed deliveries from some domestic suppliers. Producers, they said, are experiencing production issues that are crimping the existing supply. However, they admit to being too hesitant to increase their inventory supplies and say they aren’t paying the new prices yet. Peppered across multiple regions with varying market conditions, the sources unanimously said that if production issues aren’t resolved by the time seasonal demand picks up, everyone will have to absorb any price increases.
Market commentary
A sales associate for a medium-sized steel distributor based in the Mid Atlantic named slab issues as one factor that sent prices north. He explained that when mills have production issues, it causes buyers to migrate to new producers, which increases the production burden on other mills. In turn, prices increase because supply timing and availability force buyers to pay more for what they need.
“One mill is on a reserve program, so without a contract, you’re not getting plate. Another mill is struggling with a slab issue. That looks to be resolved around May/June. But they provide a lot of plate for the energy industry and book fast. Other mills don’t have their acts together,” he said.
He continued, “Lead times are into April and May. If demand gets better, the market could run. If not, maybe we see them pullback come summertime.”
The same source conceded that customers just need to deal with the conditions mills have. He said one of the more reliable producers stands to do well this time of year because of the challenges facing other plate producers.
“I’m not sure how many orders are happening at these prices. We could be paying that if demand gets better. The mills are in charge! We expect more increases in March and April,” he added.
He also noted as far as the spot market is concerned, “Service centers have not been increasing transaction prices along with the mill increases. Maybe in the next couple of weeks, though.”
A plate market associate with an Ohio Valley-based service center said if demand were stronger, the market would be absorbing the new prices. When construction season begins, he expects the need for plate to increase, which will require buyers to pay any increased prices.
“I’m not convinced this price increase is going to stick. Business conditions are not that good. Mills are fighting over the large orders still and they are wrestling to win market share now,” he said.
He continued, “They put $20/st increase on my orders for the spring. Otherwise, I haven’t seen anything move yet. They have to try. I get it. That’s business. But our business is so inconsistent that we don’t pass on much of an increase either. I’ll let you know next week if I see anything.”
“There is only one domestic mill we’ve had any production or delivery issue with,” he ended.
A steel service center source located on the West Coast said he can’t speak to broader price absorption, but contends some will pay the increases if they need the steel, while others pause purchasing to see if they can get a lower price in the future.
“If you need plate and you’re ordering domestic, you’ll be paying a higher price if partially or completely. Orders may be late due to weather, but if the mills are getting busier and you need plate for orders, you better get in line, because next month might be even higher with scrap costs probably going up again. The mills don’t eat scrap increases; they pass them along,” he said.
He added, “The increases compared to the past have been relatively conservative, and if you’re going to order import at a cheaper price, it will be 3 to 4 months before you see the material. If the demand doesn’t pick up, later in the year they’ll have to hand over those price increases.”
Prices
On Tuesday, SMU’s weekly price assessment found base spot prices for plate remained unchanged week over week. Spot market transactions continued to range from $1,030/st to $1,080/st, averaging $1,055/st.
In the equivalent week of 2025, the average domestic spot price was $1,000/st. This week’s average is up by 5.5%.
Use the SMU Interactive Pricing Tool to assess historic pricing data.
All prices are ex-works domestic mill base prices unless noted.
