Distributors/Service Centers
February 19, 2026
HARDI: Galv market conditions signal firmer terrain in 2026
Written by Kristen DiLandro
The galvanized steel market is navigating price increases and longer lead times with a surer footing than in prior months.
Participants on this month’s Heating Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council call said production hiccups, which limited supplies and created timing changes, sent prices skyward. Consensus among the callers seemed to be that bullish conditions that had been on the horizon had gone direct and weren’t settling down into bearish territory any time soon.
Market outlook
During the informal polling portion of the call, 56% of the participants stated they believe prices will be up more than $2 per hundredweight in the next 30 days. Still more bullish were the 13% who think prices will be up more than $4/cwt in a month. A cautious 31% expect prices to remain flat for the near term, give or take a couple of dollars.
Looking even further ahead to the next six months, responses resembled the slight anxiety much of the overall steel market has been vocalizing. Simply put, orders placed at the top of the year for projects slated later in the year can create price spikes that eventually peter out if underlying fundamental demand doesn’t remain consistent.
Half of the poll’s respondents expect prices to hold or decrease by $2/cwt in the next six months. While 31% are more optimistic, expecting prices to increase by as much as $2/cwt. And a bullish 19% of respondents anticipate price lifts add $6/cwt in half a year.
As for the outlook of poll respondents in the coming 12 months, most (69%) foresee the price sticking in the $50-59/cwt range. Twenty-five percent expect prices to climb to the $60-69/cwt range. And the minority of respondents answered that prices within the next 12 months will reflect a lower range of $40-49/cwt.
SMU’s galvanized steel spot price assessment on Feb. 17 verified weekly market transactions took place at an average of $1,095 per short ton (~$55/cwt). The price reflects a $15/st increase week over week.
You can use the SMU interactive pricing tool to find pricing data for steel and scrap.
Tighter supply and extended lead times
SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden presented survey results assessing galvanized steel market conditions. Galvanized buyers have experienced an average lead time of about seven weeks.
During the call, a participant stated that some producers push lead times out as far as nine weeks. He named supply disruptions with hot-rolled substrate as the prevailing cause of extended leads. So, lead times do vary depending on location and individual circumstances around each buy.
However, a different HVAC participant on the call conceded that longer lead times for all steel are the prevailing trend right now.
“Seven weeks feels light for even hot rolled right now. There are serious structural issues right now at the mills making steel on time. The integrated facilities are really underperforming. We’re hearing whispers of a number of factors,” he continued.
SMU published its latest lead time findings from the week’s survey on Feb. 19, one day after HARDI’s monthly call.
Inventories and demand
The first HVAC exec above noted favorable market conditions.
“Our inventories are good. Pricing is definitely grinding up, and I think it’s going to continue. We believe that there is still some room to go higher before you hit a foreign ceiling [a price increase so high it makes purchasing foreign products more attractive even with tariffs],” he said.
Adding, “I think they [mills] are still trying to get that order book in line. I see them holding off before releasing what the spot number will be for the next month because they have to get their act together. I don’t think they have a good idea of where that supply chain is going to come from.”
A separate source, the operator of a large-scale service center, echoed the same sentiments.
“We are seeing demand pick up; it’s getting better. Like was mentioned, I think as the weather starts to turn better, too, we’ll start seeing some projects. Hopefully, by then, things will get even better from the supply side,” he said.
He noted some lead times are longer than he’d like and that there are product “holes.”
“There are some holes out there. We are seeing bigger inquiries coming in, and that might be due to higher spot prices you’re seeing, maybe some shopping around to see whether it’s better to pull ahead,” he said.
Looking back
In the equivalent week of 2025, prices of galvanized steel averaged $985/st. The current price represents an 11.1% increase from 2025.
This week, the average prices of hot- and cold-rolled substrates were $975/st and $1,130/st, respectively. Hot-rolled coils are up ~20%, and cold-rolled base is up 14%.
SMU participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI and dedicated to better understanding the galvanized steel market. The participants are HARDI member companies, wholesalers who supply products to the construction markets. Also on the call are service centers and manufacturing companies that either buy or sell galvanized sheet and coil products used in the HVAC industry and are suppliers to HARDI member companies.
