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    Final Thoughts

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Stephen Miller


    People have asked numerous times over the last several decades variations of the same question: Will there be a scrap shortage in the coming years? And at various times in our metallic history, there has been reason to believe shortages could occur.

    For the most part, I have been on the fence on the subject of potential scrap shortages. I have declined to offer an opinion because I wasn’t sure. Also, I figured supply and demand would answer the question. And most of the time, those fundamentals did. When things tilted toward a shortage, subsequent events relieved the situation – and no shortage materialized.

    Stephen Miller

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    Final Thoughts: Longer waits, higher stakes

    We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.