Steel exports remain muted through February

US steel exports held steady from January to February and remain near historical lows, according to recently released US Department of Commerce data. Exports have trended lower for over a year now, recently dipping to a five-year low.

The volume of steel shipped outside of the country totaled 620,000 st in February. Recall that two months before this, we saw the lowest monthly export level on record since June 2020 (469,000 st). February trade was down 8% year over year, 1% below the average monthly export rate of 2025 (629,000 st), and 21% below the average rate of 2024 (785,000 st).

Over 90% of our exports are shipped to United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In February, Mexico received 64% of total US exports and 30% went to Canada. Other notable destinations (each accounting for 1% or less of trade) included Mozambique, Brazil, India, Namibia, China, the Bahamas, Israel, and the United Kingdom. To explore more detailed export data on specific products or countries, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Trends

Exports can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out month-to-month noise (Figure 2, left). From this viewpoint, exports have trended lower over the last two years. In January, the 3MMA fell to a five-year low of 552,000 st. It recovered slightly through February to 571,000 st, but is still 17% below where it was one year prior.

To eliminate seasonal variations, exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis (Figure 2, right). From this perspective, exports have weakened since peaking in early 2024 and are closing in on the low levels seen from 2019-2021. The 12MMA declined in February for the 13th month in a row to 611,000 st, the lowest measure seen in almost five years.

Exports down across most sheet and plate products

Five of the six of the flat-rolled steel products we follow declined from January to February, with many nearing historical lows. Products are mixed in comparison to year-ago levels. Notable product shifts from January to February include:

Plate-cut-length exports decreased 12% to the second-lowest rate recorded in the past six years. Recall that last November trade fell to the lowest level recorded in our 15-year data history.
Coiled plate exports increased 15% to the highest monthly rate seen in over two and a half years.
Hot-rolled exports fell 5%, now down to one of the lower rates recorded since 2020.
Cold-rolled exports declined 11%, previously at one of the higher rates seen in the past year.
Galvanized exports decreased 5% to one of the lower rates recorded since 2020.
Other-metallic coated (mostly Galvalume) exports slipped 23% and are within earshot of a five-year low.

SMU members can access historical trade figures on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.