Analysis
June 14, 2026
Written by Lewis Leibowitz
This is an opinion column. The views in this article are those of an experienced trade attorney on issues of relevance to the steel market. They do not necessarily reflect those of SMU. We welcome you to share your thoughts as well at smu@crugroup.com.
Reliance Inc. is keeping a close eye on inventory as extended lead times, elevated prices, and tight material availability complicate purchasing decisions. Executives at the Phoenix-based service center said on Thursday's third-quarter earnings call that inventory levels were appropriate. The company is reducing excess inventory and focusing on inventory turns. Chief Financial Officer Arthur Ajemyan said inventory turns improved 10% year over year.
"Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.
The US Department of Commerce has reduced the anti-dumping duty on corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) for some Mexican producers after a court order. On remand from the Court of International Trade (CIT), Commerce agreed that the record did not show that Galvasid SA de CV’s US customers separately negotiated or paid freight or insurance. The agency therefore removed the adjustment and recalculated the margin. As a result, the agency lowered Galvasid’s coated steel dumping rate to 14.54%, from 24.05%. The all-others rate is now 14.29%, down from 17.42%. Ternium’s rate is unchanged at 14.17%.
Architecture firms reported weaker business conditions in September, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release from the American Institute of Architects and Deltek. The share of firms reporting declining billings was the largest since May. The September ABI fell two and a half points from August to a four-month low of 44.7. The ABI has been in contraction for all but two months since August 2022, indicating continually weakening business conditions following the post-pandemic rally. The ABI is a typical leading indicator of nonresidential construction activity, leading construction spending by approximately 9–12 months.
Sheet and plate prices continue to push higher as mills charge a premium for what little spot tonnage remains for 2026, market participants said. SMU’s price assessment for hot-rolled (HR) coil now stands at $1,290 per short ton (st) on average, up $10/st week over week. HR price gains averaged $5/st w/w throughout July and August, with no changes in prices some weeks and gains of at most $15/st w/w. In September and October to date, in contrast, prices have increased every week—with the average gain at $11.25/st w/w and w/w gains as high as $20/st. Prices for cold-rolled and coated products continued to increase as well. SMU's price assessment for cold-rolled (CR) coil clocked in at...