Analysis
August 12, 2026
Steel market chatter this week
Written by Laura Miller
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words.
Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:
- Near-term price sentiment is predominantly bullish. Most respondents expect steel prices to rise over the next three months, generally at a gradual pace.
- Demand is stable to improving, but supply constraints may be amplifying the signal.
- Inventory is moving faster, while stocking levels are lower.
- Imports are becoming increasingly compelling due to pricing, lead times, and domestic material shortages.
- Tariff effects are mixed and depend on commercial position.
- Reshoring evidence is still preliminary.
- Risks to the current market strength are becoming more visible.
Want to share your thoughts, too? Contact david.schollaert@crugroup.com to be included in our market questionnaires.
How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months, and why?
“Flat.”
“Stable.”
“Stable to higher – there is no steel around at the mill or distributor.”
“Slow increase.”
“Continue to rise slowly.”
“Slightly higher until it hits a plateau.”
“Drift higher on steep AI demand.”
“Trending upward – tight capacity and mill outages.”
“Up.”
“Upward.”
“Up for a couple months, then likely dropping slowly.”
“Up then steady.”
“Plate will continue to go up.”
“The climb will continue. Lack of imports and tariffs favor the domestic mills.”
“I think we’ve still got some upward movement left. $1,200/ton is a lock and beyond TBD. Imports are coming in, that is a fact. I think we’ll see a reversal in Q1 but not until then.”
“Prices look to be trending to $1200, but does not seem like mills want prices to go much higher.”
“Pricing will increase unless quota volumes are increased to meet demand.” – Canadian respondent
Is demand improving, declining or stable, and why?
“Stable to declining.”
“Stable.” – four respondents
“Demand is stable to improving, depending on who you ask. It really is all about whether or not you can actually find the steel.”
“Demand is stable to improving, based on low inventories.”
“Demand is improving due to tariffs and quotas even though overall demand is stable.” – Canadian respondent
“Improving due to panic.”
“Improving, but still not to 100% capacity.”
“Improving. AI buildout.”
“Improving.” – three respondents
“Plate demand is solid to outstanding.”
Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year – and why?
“Same.” – four respondents
“Slight increase.”
“Inventory is moving a bit faster, and we’re definitely stocking less, so that is a wild combo.”
“Faster due to tariffs and buying up front to meet supply requirements.” – Canadian respondent
“Inventory is moving faster because of low inventories and poor delivery performance.”
“Plate inventory is moving fast and forward.”
Are imports more attractive vs. domestic material? Why or why not?
“Starting to look more attractive…”
“More attractive.”
“Some attractive offerings, yes.”
“Yes. Domestic is very expensive.”
“Attractive, domestic tons unavailable.”
“Plate imports are attractive in some respects and not so much in others because of domestic requirements.”
“Imports, cheaper.”
“In moderation, but not in large quantities.”
“On light-gauge painted.”
“Yes, but quotas are limiting the volume that can be purchased.” – Canadian respondent
“Imports are more attractive from a price and availability standpoint.”
“Imports are very attractive pricing-wise and lead time isn’t bad either. Everyone we talk to has already ordered plenty of import tons. That tells me the party is getting closer to ending.”
Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business? Why or why not?
“Yes. Helping on the sell side, hurting on the buy side.”
“Yes. They are helping inventory values maintain.”
“No. They’re awful! Just bad business and creating unnecessary noise and pricing whiplash.”
“No. Driving steel pricing up for our company.”
Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs? If yes, where? If no, why not?
“Yes. I see inquiries and company references, but nothing confirmed.”
“Yes. Quota level pushing up North American demand.” – Canadian respondent
“Too early to say. Announcements, but minimal demand created to date.”
“No. The headlines say “Yes”, but short of the border wall and data centers, are these other “YUGE” projects actually happening?”
What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?
“Are we setting ourselves up for a perfect storm for a nasty pricing reversal/correction in mid-2027?”
“Additional capacity coming online over next two-year timeframe and how will the market incorporate this volume increase?”
“Demand is high.”
“The Asian and European markets are soft and steel is priced 25% below domestic.”
“The economy is not bad.”
“The spread between steel busheling price and steel price continues to grow.”
“Will USW negotiations create an issue with supply?”
