Analysis
June 15, 2026
Heating and cooling equipment shipments slow in April
Written by David Schollaert
Total shipments of heating and cooling equipment declined 5% from March to April, according to recently released figures from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Despite the slower month-on-month (m/m) pace, it still marks the fourth-highest shipment rate in the past 20 months.
Historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year, impacted by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.
April shipments totaled 1.9 million units, up 0.1% compared to the same month last year (Figure 1, left). Shipments of water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pumps all declined m/m.
To smooth out seasonal movements, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, shipments have been trending lower for most of the past year following the two-year high of 1.89 million units seen last May. Through April, the 12MMA is down to a near-six-year low of 1.68 million units (Figure 1, right).
Shipments decreased across all products
- Shipments of water heaters fell 10% m/m in April to 816,000 units. Although one of the top totals over the past year, shipments were down 3% vs. this time last year.
- Warm-air furnace shipments eased marginally vs. March, down 1% m/m to 254,000 units. Shipments were also down 5% year over year (y/y).
- Shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps decreased 2% m/m to 837,000 units. This marked the first decline in five months, but still the second-best total in 10 months. It was still a 5% boost y/y. Recall that just five months prior, shipments fell to a ten-year low of 379,000 units. Note these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this perspective, annualized shipments are down for all three product groups:
- Annualized air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 22% y/y, the eighth consecutive month to see negative growth. And just two months prior, we saw the largest annual contraction rate in our 16-year data history (23%). This growth rate has been trending lower for nearly a year now.
- Annual warm-air furnace shipments were down 5% compared to the same period of the prior year. This marked the third month in a row with negative annual growth, a rate that has been trickling lower over the last year.
- Water heater shipments saw negative growth for the fourth consecutive month in April, down 1% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since peaking in mid‑2024.
