Manufacturers/End Users
July 10, 2026
Heating and cooling equipment shipments recovered in May
Written by David Schollaert
Total shipments of heating and cooling equipment improved 3% from April to May, according to recently released figures from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). The improved month-on-month (m/m) pace also marks one of the highest shipment rates in the past two years.
Historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year, impacted by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.
May shipments totaled 1.97 million units, down 0.1% compared to the same month last year (Figure 1, left). Improved m/m shipments of warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pumps imp were slightly offset by lower water heater shipments.
To smooth out seasonal movements, shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). On this basis, shipments have been trending lower for most of the past year following the two-year high of 1.89 million units seen last May. Through May, the 12MMA is down to a near-six-year low of 1.68 million units (Figure 1, right).
Shipments decreased across all products
- Shipments of water heaters fell 4% m/m in May to 780,000 units. While still one of the top totals over the past year, shipments were down 5% vs. this time last year.
- Warm-air furnace shipments improved vs. April, up 5% m/m to 267,000 units. Shipments, however, were 6% lower year over year (y/y).
- Shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps rose 10% m/m to 919,000 units, and the highest total in nearly two years. It was also a 7% boost y/y. Recall that just five months prior, shipments fell to a 10-year low of 379,000 units. Note these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this perspective, annualized shipments are down for all three product groups:
- Annualized air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 21% y/y, the ninth consecutive month to see negative growth. And just three months prior, we saw the largest annual contraction rate in our 16-year data history (23%). This growth rate has been trending lower for a year now.
- Annual warm-air furnace shipments were down 7% compared to the same period of the prior year. This marked the fourth month in a row with negative annual growth, a rate that has been edging lower over the last year.
- Water heater shipments saw negative growth for the fifth consecutive month in May, down 2% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since peaking in mid‑2024.
