HRC vs. prime scrap spread hits mark not seen since 2022

Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen in June, a trend that began in September. It’s now at a level not seen since 2022.

SMU’s average HRC price was $1,130 per short ton (st) FOB mill, east of the Rockies, as of Tuesday, June 16. That’s a $15/st increase from the previous week and a $40/st jump from a month earlier.

At the same time, busheling tags slipped $2.50 per gross ton (gt) in June vs. May, averaging $460/gt.

Figure 1 shows price histories for each product.

After converting scrap prices to dollars per short ton for an equal comparison, the differential between HRC and busheling scrap prices was $719/st as of Wednesday, June 17. That’s an increase of $52/st from a month earlier. This is the first time it’s topped $700/st since the middle of May 2022, when it stood at $722/st (Figure 2).

What’s going on?

The widening spread between #1 Busheling and HRC was fairly predictable, as HRC prices continued to rise while prime scrap was held sideways for June shipment. What is surprising is the strength of the flat-roll market and the sizable increase in the spread.

In the coming months, there could be some upward momentum in the prime scrap market based on the finite supply. Also, if pig iron is excessively tariffed, the spread could change as busheling demand would soar.

But the overall scrap market in the US will have trouble with a sustained price increase as long as scrap export tonnages continue to flounder. And there is no telling when HRC prices will peak. It can be interpreted as a license to make money for the mills.

HRC premium as a percentage

The graph on the right-hand side of Figure 2 shows the spread relationship differently: We have graphed HRC’s premium over busheling scrap as a percentage. HRC prices now hold a 146% premium over prime scrap, up from 134% a month prior.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.