CRU
June 22, 2026
CRU Outlook: Plate prices will retain support in the US but soften in Asia, Europe
Written by Chetan Soni & Diego Giangreco
This item was first published by CRU. To learn about CRU’s global commodities research and analysis services, visit www.crugroup.com.
Tight supply in the US will support prices, while European prices will fall on weaker demand
The US steel plate market will maintain its upward price trajectory over the near-term because tight supply conditions will likely persist. Although imports had previously been building, they fell off significantly in May which will intensify supply-side pressures. Though domestic mills will likely increase production in the second half of 2026, unexpected demand surges present further upside risk to this pricing outlook.
Conversely, European plate prices will edge lower in the coming weeks. Domestic orderbooks will remain weak, and a lack of volume sales will increase competition amongst producers. Furthermore, imported slab prices will likely soften since the current levels are unsustainable against falling finished product prices. Cost support could also weaken because the estimated Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) liability on slab imports has been revised down from an earlier premium of €60–80 per metric ton to €40–50/mt according to market feedback. The new tariff-rate quota system will apply on July 1 and will tighten the number of steel imports coming into the EU duty-free. This presents an upside risk to prices.
Weather disruptions will dictate APAC demand and prices
The Chinese market will experience some downward pressure on domestic spot prices over the next few weeks. The upcoming rainy season and high temperatures will slow down outdoor construction activities, which will consequently weigh on demand. If production continues to outpace this sluggish demand, traders’ inventories will build month over month, creating additional downside risk. In contrast to China, Southeast Asian plate prices will stay supported due to elevated input costs.
Finally, Indian steel plate prices will stay rangebound around current levels in the coming month. A deficient monsoon will mean fewer weather-related disruptions for construction activities, while steady manufacturing demand from the shipbuilding and yellow goods sectors will provide a reliable floor for the market. However, the intensity of El Niño weather patterns will remain a critical risk factor. A severely deficient monsoon could trigger droughts and force aggressive water conservation measures across commercial sectors, which would ultimately weaken near-term demand.
