Final Thoughts
June 26, 2026
Written by Michael Cowden
We are pleased to present this week’s Final Thoughts, now delivered as its own newsletter and written by SMU editor-in-chief Michael Cowden.
I saw this post pop into my LinkedIn feed today. I assumed it was from a few hours ago. The text seemed OK. But I wanted to figure out how we somehow got the prices wrong.
We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.
"Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.
If you’re a Seinfeld fan, you probably remember the classic episode about “The Soup Nazi.” I think there might be some parallels between that clip and the tone of 2027 contract negotiations between domestic mills and steel buyers.
SMU’s latest steel market survey is out, and it paints a picture of a market we’re all familiar with now: long lead times, mills firmly in control of pricing, and an expectation that US sheet prices will remain stronger for longer, despite increased interest in imports.
With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.