Analysis
July 7, 2026
Miller on Exports: Global scrap market slips
Written by Stephen Miller
The export market in both Europe and the US continued to decline after the activity of last week became confirmable. In Europe, Turkish steelmakers continued to selectively buy material at reduced prices. At this point it is hard to say where prices will bottom.
There were two new cargoes concluded from the US by Turkey. One cargo of HMS 80/20 was transacted at a price of $373 per metric ton (mt) CFR.
Prior to this there was another sale reported from the US East Coast at an average price of $403/mt CFR. According to sources in Turkey, the cargo consisted of shredded at $403/mt, HMS 95/5 at $398/mt, and P&S at $408/mt. The last two confirmed sales of HMS 80/20 from the US earlier in June were at $388/mt and $406/mt.
European sales into Turkey saw HMS prices in the range of $368-373/mt early last week. However, prices slipped later in the week into the $363-365/mt level, all on a CFR basis.
Any further sales will probably be even lower, according to another source. It should be noted that European Baltic cargoes peaked out in early June at just over $400/mt CFR. So, the new levels represent around a $40/mt drop in a short period of time.
SMU spoke with two European-based scrap traders to learn how they view the new export landscape. One source said he was quite surprised about how far prices have fallen recently.
Another source based in Southern Europe said since the Turkish buyers have successfully taken down the market, other Mediterranean steel mills should take advantage and book cargoes before prices firm going into September (as the futures market suggests).
SMU spoke with a North American scrap executive who told us freight rates to Turkey may be improving but they have not shown sustainable downward move yet.
They remain above the $40/mt level for Handymax-sized vessels, which are commonly for transatlantic scrap shipments. These vessels usually carry 30,000-35,000 mt of ferrous scrap. This will encourage US exporters to keep their shredded scrap in the domestic market.
SMU spoke with a US-based supplier to the export yards in the Northeast. He said local prices for export-quality HMS have dropped only about $7-10 per gross ton.
He also said prices for remote HMS have not dropped much, but he is expecting another $5-10/gt price decline. Prices paid by other terminals to the south have dropped even further, according to export sources.
The continued decline in export activity off the East and Gulf Coasts just keeps the supply of material for domestic consumption at more than adequate levels.
The US domestic market still trying to form as we enter the second week of July and some sources are saying that a sideways move for July, which many thought was “in the bag,” now seems questionable.
