Analysis
July 8, 2026
CRU: HR coil futures fall while open interest eases back from record
Written by Josh Spoores
This item was first published by CRU. To learn about CRU’s global commodities research and analysis services, visit www.crugroup.com.
Over the past nine consecutive months, from November through July, CRU’s monthly HR coil benchmark gained an average of $37 per short ton (st) per month. During that time, futures prices were slow to price in the uptrend before rising at a faster pace in Q2’26 (see chart). Last month, the futures market priced in a peak of just over $1,200/st for August and September. Yet over the past few weeks these futures prices have sold off with the market pricing in an average of $1,164/st for August and September as of close on July 6.
Potentially, this price weakness reflects some profit taking, particularly as import arrivals are rising, yet remain historically low. Even though near-term futures prices have fallen, the forward curve for 2027 has continued to increase. Last month this stood at $1,033/st and as of market close this past Monday, it is $1,059/st. While this curve is lower than current spot prices, it may represent a clear opportunity for both natural buyers and sellers to lock in potential price risk exposure for the coming year.
While futures prices have slipped below their recent peak, overall open interest in the HR coil futures contract remains historically high. Open interest on market close of the Monday preceding this publication in July represents 799,140 st, the third highest in history and just below the record reading of 824,500 st reached this time last month. Clearly this futures contract continues to gain acceptance across the physical and financial markets.
