Analysis
August 11, 2026
Ferrous scrap market chatter this month
Written by Ethan Bernard
Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics. These include prices, business conditions, and tariffs, among others.
This month’s survey came in just as the August trade was settling. A healthy majority of respondents (77%) thought prices for prime scrap would come in sideways this month. The remainder thought prices would be down.
As reported last week, prime scrap came in largely sideways in August as trading was finishing up, while the other grades SMU tracks came in down slightly.
On whether the current scrap market was in balance right now, given supply and demand, a majority thought it was. For that question, 62% said it was in balance.
However, one respondent said, “Too much supply on secondaries and lower supply for prime.” And another stated, “Temporary oversupply due to shutdowns and strong flow of obsolete grades.”
Let’s take a look at what other participants were seeing on pricing on demand. We’ll post the slides, followed by a few comments from respondents.
Want to share your thoughts? Contact david.schollaert@crugroup.com to be included in future market questionnaires. (For Premium subscribers, the full results are available here.)
How is overall demand for domestic scrap?
“Stable at the point the downward pricing this month was because – the mills finally got what they’ve been trying for. Let’s see how long before a bounce back.”
“Temporary decline for seasonal maintenance shutdowns.”
“Demand is slowing.”
Where do you think busheling prices will be in August?
“Scrap price is moving slowly – still flat.”
“Market strong with high domestic mill operating rates. Strength in flat-rolled pricing leading to strength in prime grades of scrap.”
“Chicago busheling has not moved for six months, while HR steel is up $240/nt. Outside influences are impacting the market.”
“Today, busheling (especially processed) seems to be the most interesting product.”
“Expecting a $10-20 drop.”
“Domestic steel pricing is still high and logistics cost has increased.”
“Slight oversupply.”
Where do you think HMS prices will be in August?
“Expecting a $10-20 drop.”
“Oversupplied market.”
“Product and demand are stable in the market.”
Two months from now, how do you see ferrous scrap pricing behaving?
“Very slow movement upward.”
“A lot depends on export activity.”
“Drop in August followed by sideways September.”
