Steel Summit: Analysts look ahead to 2027

Leading steel analysts gave their forecasts for 2027 pricing and market dynamics at SMU Steel Summit 2026.

Josh Spoores, CRU research principal; Timna Tanners, managing director, equity research at Wells Fargo; and John Anton, director, pricing and purchasing at S&P Global Market Intelligence, sat down with SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden on Monday at Steel Summit 2026 in Atlanta to discuss the market and look ahead.

A general consensus emerged that next year was unlikely to be a repeat of the dynamics we saw in 2026, though views diverged on where we were heading. Here’s a snapshot of what they said.

Josh Spoores

Spoores thinks contract prices will reset higher next year as current spot prices feed through. And supply shortages will further limit demand, unless steel imports can return. As a caveat, Spoores believes significant upside and downside risk could affect both supply and demand forecasts.

Regarding contract negotiation expectations for 2027, Spoores expects fixed-price contracts rising from ~$800 per short ton (st) in 2026 to $1,100-1,175/st.

“Overall, what we’re seeing in sheet demand is 4% growth next year, and that equates to about 2.2 million tons of new demand growth.”

Timna Tanners

Tanners’ presentation highlighted that after the amazing price run of 2026, we shouldn’t expect those conditions to continue.

Looking to next year, Tanners said Wells Fargo’s new $1,000/st 2027 HRC forecast assumes limited change to tariffs, but also assumes an end to the Iran conflict, so lower freight costs, lower fuel, etc. Still, a broad drop to a 25% tariff could justify $800-1000/st HRC, in Wells Fargo’s view.

So Tanners expects a much more subdued peak in 2027 than 2026.

“The ship has sailed. Here’s our ship, and we don’t think it’s going to be as easy going forward.”

John Anton

Anton received a standing ovation as he said this would be his final appearance at Steel Summit.

He pointed out the US has the highest steel prices by far of any significant economy. What he termed protectionism was the main reason, and “demand was not the driver.” He said most Asian prices remain significantly lower than US prices even after the 50% Section 232 tariff, keeping imports competitive.

Anton stated that data center capacity additions are set to peak in 2028, while demand for components used in automotive production will remain soft into 2027.

“If buyers don’t turn to imports, we don’t think prices will come down.”

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.