Category: Analysis

The majority of steel buyers we canvassed this week continue to report that mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.  

Sheet and plate prices remained in a holding pattern this week as the market awaited more specifics on potential Trump administration tariffs.

Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.

Weekly raw steel mill production levels have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range across the last four months, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

President Donald Trump has promised an “overhaul” of the US trade system, and in short order the unveiling of an “America First Trade Policy.” “I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families,” Trump declared in his inaugural address on Monday, Jan. 20.   “Instead of taxing our […]

What’s been the impact of tariff threats on prices and demand? In short, not much – or at least that was the case when I was writing this column on Sunday afternoon. Spot activity for Canadian material, for example, has been put on hold over the last few weeks while the market waits to see what the new tariff landscape might look like.

With just two weeks to go, we have over 400 registered so far for the 36th annual Tampa Steel Conference. Join us and hundreds of industry executives at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street from Sunday, February 2, through Tuesday, February 4.

Active drilling rig activity in the US declined to a multi-year low this week, while Canadian counts marched higher, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

Coal miners Consol Energy and Arch Resources have completed what they describe as a merger of equals to form Core Natural Resources. Headquartered in Canonsburg, Pa., the new company has the potential to produce 12 million metric tons (mt) per year of metallurgical coal and more than 25 million mt per year of thermal coal, as […]

EU restrictions on Russia, Canadian tariffs, scrap leakage and more

Many people have shaken off the post-holiday blues. But for primary aluminum operators, “power blues” are enduring.

Next Monday marks the start of the second Trump administration. The limbo we’ve been living in since Election Day in early November will finally come to an end. What better way to take a look at what’s coming up in Washington, D.C., than a conversation with Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell. He […]

The price premium of galvanized coil over hot-rolled (HR) coil has continued to narrow, a downward trend seen for the past seven months. As of this week, the spread between these two products has reached an 18-month low.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap continued to narrow in January, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data. While SMU’s average HRC price edged down week over week (w/w), it rose compared to a month ago. The January price for busheling also increased from December. Our average HRC price as of […]

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.

Steel prices ticked lower this week for four of the five products SMU tracks, according to our latest canvass of the sheet and plate markets. Following last week’s bump, our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, and plate indices all edged lower this week by $5-15 per short ton (st) on average. Galvalume was the only […]

Reflecting on 2024 and looking ahead to the new year, galvanized steel buyers on this month’s HARDI call expressed a mix of cautious optimism with lingering uncertainties.

Monthly shipments of heating and cooling equipment decreased from October to November, according to the latest data released from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). November shipments fell 12% month on month (m/m) to 1.69 million units (Figure 1, left). This follows typical seasonal declines, as the monthly decrease from October to November has […]

Raw steel mill production increased last week, according to the most recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market fell to a multi-month low in November, according to an analysis of Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.

The amount of steel exiting the country continued to decline through November, falling to an 11-month low, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. This is the third month in a row that steel exports have eased and the second-lowest monthly rate recorded in almost two years.

US mill secures $22 M funding for Nexcast project US-based rolling mill, Golden Aluminum, has secured $22.3 million in government funding for its next generation mini mill project. The company was awarded the funding from the US Department of Energy’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations initiative at the end of November. Golden Aluminum plans to […]

We are quickly approaching Inauguration Day. The market still has no definitive clue as to how the Trump administration will execute on its threat to apply universal tariffs to all imports. Compounding this are the threats to apply 25% duties against our USMCA partners - Canada and Mexico.

Pig iron prices declined in all regions as the EU’s 2025 import quota on Russian pig iron has begun, loosening global supply.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined in the US this week, while Canadian rig counts saw a rebound, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Domestic steel imports fell 14% from October to November to a one-year low of 2.07 million short tons (st), according to final US Commerce Department data. While steel trade has declined from early-2024 highs, November imports are slightly higher than volumes seen one year prior.

SMU lets readers respond on their thoughts about President Joe Biden blocking Nippon's deal for U.S. Steel.