Category: Analysis

There has been considerable upward movement in the US prices paid for future shipment of Brazilian-produced pig iron over the last week. 

Shipments of heating and cooling equipment in the US fell to an 11-month low in December, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

The CRU Metallics Price Indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 5.0% m/m in February to 293.7, a five-month high. Scrap prices increased in different degrees this month, reflecting the confidence level in the steel market across different regions. While US scrap prices rose sharply m/m due to limited availability, those in Europe and Asia had only small […]

A look at how SMU survey respondents are reacting to President Trump's recent actions on tariffs.

Iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes saw a sharp decline in January 2025, according to the Lake Carriers’ Association (LCA).

The problem is that the situation in Washington is so fluid that no one really knows what to expect

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap widened in February ahead of the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs on steel.

US steel prices set to jump after President Trump levies new tariffs.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.

Each of the steel product prices tracked by SMU saw significant increases this week. All four of our sheet price indices rose by $30-50 per short ton (st) on average. Plate prices popped $60/st compared to the week prior.

Apparent US steel supply rebounded in December, but 2024 was still the lowest level for supply since 2020.

The new version of Section 232 goes into effect on 12:01 am ET on March 12, according to the executive order. The latest iteration of Section 232 removed quotas, exemptions, and other carve outs that had accumulated over years.

December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.

US mills produced an estimated 1,675,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, the highest weekly rate recorded since mid-December according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) has elected eight officers to serve on its 2025-27 SMA Executive Committee.

A comparison of the current cost of pig iron vs. busheling scrap.

An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.

Evraz, SSAB Americas, and Nucor have all followed up on their initial price bumps at the opening of their March order books with a second round of increases.

US rig counts remain marginally above multi-year lows. The drop in Canadian activity comes just one week after reaching a near seven-year high.

Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities

A look at US curbside operators concerns about new deposit legislation for used beverage cans.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.

ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price of $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. The steelmaker is also seeking $1,050/st for cold-rolled product and $1,000/st for coated material, according to a letter to customers dated Wednesday.

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.

While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]