Category: Analysis

SMU’s steel price indices rose across the board this week. Sheet prices increased as much as $35 per short ton (st) compared to last week, while our average plate price ticked up by$10/st.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through January 31st.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

U.S. Steel has increased sheet prices by $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker has also set a new target price of $800/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil, they said.

On Jan. 18, Teck Resources announced that it expects its Trail smelter in Canada to produce 190,000 to 230,000 metric tons (mt) in 2025, down 10-25% from its 256,000 mt output in 2024. The company announced that the lower output was to maximize profitability and value amid the current tightness in zinc concentrate availability relative […]

The number of active drill rigs operating in the US and Canada increased this week, according to Baker Hughes

Hitting Canada with a 25% tariff could allow imported goods from other origins at proposed 10%-20% tariffs.

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

Prices for the seven steelmaking raw materials SMU tracks moved in differing directions from December to January, according to our latest analysis.

USMCA is option 1 but will cost more or not be big enough

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Trump made a clarification in a speech on Monday. Previously, he had declared the word “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. No longer.

SMU’s sheet prices were mixed this week. Hot-rolled (HR) coil and plate notched gains while prices for coated products stagnated or dipped lower. Our HR price now stands at $700 per short ton (st) on average, up $15/st from last week and marking the highest level for HR prices since $705/st in early October. SMU’s […]

Raw steel mill production held relatively steady last week, according to recent figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

A majority of SMU survey respondents expect US prime scrap tags to land sideways in February. In our most recent survey last week, 51% said US prime scrap prices would be flat next month, and 46% anticipate rising prices; the small remainder think prices will fall. Recall that the January ferrous scrap market settled before […]

There is no doubt pig iron will be needed to fuel the expansion of flat-roll capacity in the US and Canada. Where will it come from? How much will it cost? What will be the quality? Is it a good business to produce merchant pig iron? The US imports between 4-6 million metric tons (mt) per year of […]

President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.

The volume of crude steel produced around the world declined 2% month over month (m/m) in December, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel). This is the second-consecutive monthly decline in production, following November’s 3% m/m drop.

Turkish scrap prices showed little change week over week (w/w), with HMS 80:20 and shredded grades assessed at $343 per metric ton (mt) and $357/mt, respectively. Turkish scrap prices remained steady during the third week of 2025, with HMS 80:20 unchanged at $343/mt, while Shredded grades fell edged lower $5/mt to $357/mt based on confirmed […]

The number of active oil and gas rigs drilling in the US continued to decline last week, according to Baker Hughes, remaining at a multi-year low. Meanwhile, Canadian drilling activity marched to the beat of a different drum, rising to a near-two-year high this week.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices saw a slight decline this week, slipping to levels last observed in early November

Executive orders, LME volatility and more

The Stargate Project is making big claims. Are they realistic?

We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.

With just 10 days to go and nearing the final countdown, we have nearly 550 registered (and counting) so far for the 36th annual Tampa Steel Conference. Join us and hundreds of industry executives at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street from Sunday, Feb. 2, through Tuesday, Feb. 4. Take a break from the snow […]

Steel mill lead times were mixed across the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

The majority of steel buyers we canvassed this week continue to report that mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.  

Sheet and plate prices remained in a holding pattern this week as the market awaited more specifics on potential Trump administration tariffs.

Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.

Weekly raw steel mill production levels have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range across the last four months, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).