Category: Analysis

I want to say a big thank you to everyone who attended the Tampa Steel Conference. More than 600 people – smashing the record we set last year.

Following November’s nine-year low, heating and cooling equipment shipments rebounded 19% in December.

Last week, news stories (first in the Financial Times) appeared that the Trump administration was working on adjustments to steel and aluminum derivative tariffs. Ostensibly, these tariffs are only imposed on the steel or aluminum “content” of derivative products. But Customs has not provided clear guidance on how to calculate content. Confusion and controversy are running rampant.

Companies are framing 2026 around backlog, mix and production discipline rather than a uniform market recovery.

Tales from the sidelines of Tampa Steel Conference 2026.

CRU: US Midwest sheet prices have continued to rise from our mid-January assessment.

A narrow range has emerged, suggesting the market’s repricing of downside risk is starting to stick.

Hot-rolled coil hovering near $970 per ton could push toward $1,000, but Timna Tanners cautioned at the Tampa Steel Conference that anything “much above that” becomes difficult to sustain. Still, she argued that mills’ slow, disciplined price increases are working in their favor.

The price gap between US hot-rolled coil (HR/HRC) and landed offshore product was largely flat this week, as price movements stateside and abroad mirrored each other. Still, the premium for US hot band over imports has remained in a relatively tight band since early December.

SMU’s sheet price indices inched up to new multi-month highs this week, while plate prices held steady.

Gone conferencin'. Yes, it's about that time when some of our staff are already en route to Florida, as the Tampa Steel Conference kicks off on Wednesday.

There has been some recent activity of exports of basic pig iron from Brazil. Sources there agree on the activity but diverge on the pricing. What is new to the market in Brazil is the buying interest from the European Union, in particularly, Italy.

I’m going to play devil’s advocate for a narrative that has become the consensus for much of the US steel market. You know how it goes. Domestic steel prices will continue to go up despite uneven demand thanks to low supplies stemming in large part from tariffs and limited import competition. That's been the case for months now. Will it continue to be?

November apparent steel supply declined 9% or 772,000 short tons (st) from October to 7.61 million st, the lowest measure recorded since February 2021

Plate market participants expect domestic producers to issue a $40-60 per short ton (st) price increase.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) fell 6.2% in January to 272.7, retreating from December’s downwardly revised reading of 291.0, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap jumped again in February, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey. And the Future Sentiment Index remained the same for the third consecutive month.

Former smelter sites have become increasingly attractive to data center developers competing for electricity to support AI.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both edged lower this week following the multi-month highs set in mid-January.

The price gap between US hot-rolled coil and landed offshore product narrowed this week, as price movements stateside and abroad diverged.

November steel exports tumbled 15% from October to the lowest monthly export rate since July 2020.

US rebar and wire rod prices rose month on month (m/m) alongside continued scrap increases, while merchant bar and structurals were unchanged.

SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

One third of the steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are negotiable on new spot order pricing. Mills began to hold a firmer stance on prices towards the end of last year, tightening their grip in early January and holding it since.

SMU's ferrous scrap survey celebrates its one-year anniversary this month.

Steel mill lead times marginally declined on sheet products this week but edged higher on plate, according to responses from SMU’s latest market survey. Overall, lead times remain one to two weeks longer than levels seen three months ago.

Since my last column, confidence within the physical market has been restored. However, that does not mean necessarily confidence in the outlook for demand. More so, it's confidence that better pricing is not lurking around the corner. So where do we go from there?  

The US domestic scrap market is largely settled on February pricing. Despite poor weather conditions that have been wreaking havoc on scrap flows and deliveries to consumers, the pricing initially agreed between dealers and steelmakers has been fairly conservative.

Sheet market participants said conditions this week were more stable than in past weeks, but they remain cautiously optimistic overall.   

Market participant comments from this month's SMU ferrous scrap survey.