The Chicago Business Barometer for December was revised downward to 63.8 from 65.4 following annual seasonal adjustments. The changes resulted in higher growth for first and second quarter, no change in third quarter, but a downward revision for the fourth quarter. The results indicate a cooling of growth at the end of 2018, said MNI […]
The growth of China’s economy has slowed partly as a result of the tariff war with the United States, and China may be in a mood for serious negotiation. Once each quarter, we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving […]
In Q3 and Q4 2018, the Pacific region regained the lead as the engine of national job creation. Fourth-quarter employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the strong employment situation that we reported earlier at the national level. In the fourth […]
Global steel production slowed in December, but this was purely a seasonal effect. Global steel production in December was at an annual rate of 1.765 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion tons and capacity utilization in December was 74.0 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, which has been on a downward trajectory for months, has shown no signs of changing direction so far in 2019. The SMU Index continues to be well within the “optimistic” range, but is not as high as what we saw one year ago and is flat compared to […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel continued to shrink this month. Even plate, which has been in short supply, is showing signs of loosening with its average lead time dipping to less than six weeks from more than seven weeks at the beginning of January. Lead times for steel delivery are […]
Halfway through the first month of the year, buyers report that most mills are willing to talk price to secure the order. Even price negotiations with plate mills are beginning to loosen up. Nearly half (47 percent) of plate buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said suppliers are now open […]
Steel Market Update asked: When do you expect flat rolled steel prices to reverse course and begin rising? Judging by the widely varied responses to this week’s market trends questionnaire, there is no clear consensus among steel buyers on when prices will turn around. A small group, about 6 percent, said they believe prices will […]
The Architecture Billings Index dipped in December, falling to 50.4 from 54.7 in November, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. Billings continued to be positive for the 15th consecutive month, scoring above the neutral reading of 50. Backlogs lengthened to an average of 6.4 months in December, a historical record […]
Phillips 66 Partners, Harvest Midstream Co. and PBF Logistics LP have agreed to jointly develop the ACE Pipeline System in Louisiana, which will move crude oil some 60-80 miles from the market hub in St. James to downstream refining destinations in Belle Chasse, Meraux and Chalmette. The partners may elect to add a delivery destination […]
This article on the competitiveness of steel against other products was originally produced last week for Steel Market Update Premium members. We want our entire readership to review the analysis done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and then analyzed by Peter Wright on our staff. If you would like information about upgrading to Premium […]
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has recovered from its recent low in December. The spot price of WTI FOB Cushing, Okla., recovered to $50.31 on Jan. 14 from its recent low of $44.48 on Dec. 27. WTI had a recent peak on Oct. 3 of $76.40 per barrel. The total number […]
Steel became less competitive in 2018 against aluminum, plastic and wood, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data. The cost of carbon cold rolled sheet was up more than twice as much as aluminum sheet, and steel pipe was up by nine times as much as plastic […]
The U.S. dollar has retreated from the last Steel Market Update currency report when it had the highest value on the foreign exchange markets for over 16 years. In the last month, the dollar weakened against 13 of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks. This was a turnaround from November when it strengthened […]
Sherwin-Williams has announced a 6 percent hike in the cost of paint effective in March, upsetting customers in the prepainted steel and aluminum market. “There is no justification for this paint increase,” said one coil coater. “Oil prices are at their lowest level in years.” Sherwin-Williams raised prices twice last year when oil prices were […]
When we go out for flat rolled and plate steel spot pricing, we do so in a number of ways in order to maximize the number of responses. This week SMU sent out an email inquiry requesting information on pricing, but also on lead times, inventories and foreign steel offers, and we solicited general open […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update’s source in China reports on recent remarks by Chinese economic expert Xiang Songzuo, who warned that the nation’s economy is showing signs of crashing. Xiang showed courage in being publicly critical of the government, which later banned his remarks from the internet. “You can look at the history: Only the […]
Manufacturing firms in New York State are less optimistic regarding future business conditions than they were in December. In the January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the future business outlook index fell 13 points to 17.8. The indices for future new orders and new shipments plunged 15.3 points and 11.4 points, respectively. Overall business activity […]
When the public first learned the government was shutting down, many of us thought, “Glad I don’t work for Uncle Sam!” Now, as the shutdown extends its record as the longest in U.S. history, the effects are being felt well beyond the households of government employees. Even here at Steel Market Update. With government data […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Recessions are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization tasked with identifying when a recession starts and ends, as back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth. […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. This month we have revamped our recession monitor report to make it more time sensitive. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that steel demand is related to GDP but is vastly […]
If the prevailing view in the market proves correct, steel mills will announce a price increase soon—but it won’t stick. Two out of three steel executives responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week believe the mills will announce an increase in flat rolled prices by the end of January. But given […]
Last week, Steel Market Update concluded our early January analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel market trends. One of the key areas we watch is how service centers are handling spot pricing of flat rolled steels to their end customers. Over the years we have learned that when service centers are raising prices, […]
Steel Market Update asked: Are the Section 232 tariffs negatively impacting your business? The market is evenly split on the subject. About half of those responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week—primarily service center and OEM executives—say they have been hurt by the tariffs, while the other half say the tariffs have had no direct effect. […]
Mill lead times turned the corner on the new year little changed from mid-December. At less than four weeks for hot rolled and around six weeks for cold rolled and coated products, lead times for spot orders of most products are as short as they have been in over a year. While still in high […]
Steel Market Update’s first canvass of the new year shows a subtle shift in the price dynamic between mills and steel buyers. No doubt, buyers still have a lot of leverage and most mills are usually willing to talk price to secure the order. But SMU’s findings show a slight tightening in negotiations. In the […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index began the year with another slight dip in optimism, as measured by both the Current Sentiment and the Future Sentiment three-month moving averages. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), […]
With the partial government shutdown in its 20th day, the political standoff in Washington over President Trump’s border wall remains focused on his $5.7 billion budget request. The larger question is whether a construction project of the scale the president has proposed is even feasible, at any cost. From a steel industry standpoint, the project […]
President Trump’s border wall could be made of three million tons of U.S. steel if he is able to get the funding for construction. In a bid to make his request more palatable to Democrats, Trump said the wall could be made of domestic steel from the companies he has made great again. “I’ll have […]
The U.S. labor market finished 2018 on a strong note. December was the first month ever for total nonfarm payrolls to exceed 150 million, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Unlike the Commerce Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) remains funded under the current government shutdown. […]