The Architecture Billings Index increased modestly to 50.7 in February pulling out of its dip into negative territory in January. The new projects Inquiry index was 61.5, up from 60.0 the previous month, and the design contract index climbed to 54.7 from 52.1. “The sluggish start to the year in architecture firm billings should give […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory last month. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week […]
Steel mill lead times are one of the key indicators of future direction of steel prices. Steel buyers must be aware of the amount of time it takes a supplier to produce and ship a new order. Lead times and balancing inventories go hand in hand. When lead times shrink, buyers can pull back on […]
Over the course of a few weeks, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steels changed their view of the direction of flat rolled steel price direction. In the middle of February only 14 percent of those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey reported prices would move higher with the majority (52 […]
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about […]
Last Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to provide information for […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 17, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 789 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 21 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 14 to 631 rigs, gas rigs up 6 to 157 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed business continuing to expand at a sound pace in New York State. The general business index registered 16.4, a decline of two points from its two year high last month. The new orders index gained 7.8 points, climbing to 21.3 for its highest reading since 2009. Shipments continued […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the third consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory three weeks ago. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Robert Lighthizer faces the Senate confirmation hearings today without the congressional waiver needed to take the post of U.S. Trade Representative. A waiver is required because of a provision prohibiting individuals who worked on behalf of foreign governments in trade negotiations with the United States from becoming the U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer’s work on behalf […]
The election of President Donald Trump uncovered a wound that has been festering for many years with both Democrats and Republicans in the White House. At the recent Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International (FMA) annual meeting, Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence had this to say about the Obama Administration, “The frustration was we […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through January 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February employment data on Friday which was a week later than normal. This was the best result for goods producing industries (mainly construction and manufacturing) since August 1998. The preliminary result for net job creation in February was 235,000. December was revised down by 2,000 and January […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts a detailed analysis of the trends impacting the flat rolled steel markets. We issue over 670 invitations to people associated with manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors to assist us in our analysis. We finished conducting our early March research on Thursday of this past […]
Optimism reigns supreme within the steel community and those responsible for buying and selling flat rolled steel products. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index set new record highs for both Current and Future Sentiment indices. Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel set a new record high for a single data point at +77 for […]
Hot rolled average lead times remain extended at 4.38 weeks compared to the 3.79 weeks SMU was reporting one year ago. Cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume lead times were running close to or just below last year’s reported average. Lead time is the average amount of time it takes for a new order of a […]
Flat rolled steel mills have become less enthusiastic about negotiating prices for new orders of hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. Based on the results of the flat rolled steel market trends analysis coming out of the survey we have been conducting over the past four days. We found 33 percent of the […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week the data was updated through Q3 2016. Even though we might consider this to be historically “old,” we think it’s worth reporting because it is a foundation for […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the second consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory two weeks ago. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
We at Steel Market Update (SMU) have been upbeat on the steel market for many weeks. We thought sharing our Key Market Indicators (KMI) with our readers would help everyone to understand our reading on the market and from where we get our core optimism. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at […]
Global manufacturing is expanding at the fastest rate in almost six years, according to the latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing report. The PMI rose to 52.9 in February from 52.7 in January for its highest reading since May 2011. IHS Markit said February’s expansion is continuing a trend it began a year ago and indicates […]
The World Trade Organization General Council announced that Roberto Azevêdo has been appointed for a second term as Director-General. The four-year term will begin on September 1, 2017. Azevêdo, in his thank you remarks, said he believed the WTO was on the right path. He also asked members to show their support for the WTO. […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States moved back into positive territory this week following a brief negative dip last week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 3, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 756 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 2 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 7 to 609 rigs, gas rigs down 5 to 146 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Steel organizations were pleased by the first address by President Donald Trump to the joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening. Steel associations welcomed promises of trade enforcement, infrastructure spending and tax reform. Here is a sampling of comments following the President’s address. Thomas J. Gibson, president and CEO of American Iron and Steel Institute […]
New U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross met with Department of Commerce employees on Wednesday. Ross began his speech by praising President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday night. “I thought it was one of the most inspiring speeches I’ve ever heard, and I think it augers well for the new administration. President Trump […]
The February ISM Report on Business indicates manufacturing activity expanded in February with the overall economy in a 93rd month of consecutive growth. The PMI was 57.7 percent, up from 56 percent in January. Looking at it from a 3 month moving average, February showed growth at 56.1, up from 54.7. Production at 62.9 gained […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During February our view […]