Manufacturers in the Fifth and Tenth Districts were optimistic about future manufacturing growth during the next six months. The Tenth District, under the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was especially optimistic on future growth. Richmond Fed The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported manufacturing activity strengthened in the Fifth District during January. The composite […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing to Higher flat rolled steel prices since late October (12 weeks). Based on our analysis of last week’s steel market trends survey as well as direct contact with buyers today, SMU Price Momentum has not changed and our expectation is for prices to move higher over the next […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ended 2016 at a score of 55.9, up from 50.6 in November and growing for the third consecutive month, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index stood at 57.2 in December from 59.5 the previous month. The differing growth pace between […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Philadelphia area during January and is expected to continue to do so for the next six months, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index for current manufacturing index rose from 19.7 in December to 23.6 in January for […]
The steel industry does not seem to be concerned about the transition of power as Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States. There have been a number of cabinet appointees who have testified about the domestic steel industry and the need to “level the playing field” by taking governments, such as China, […]
Wilbur Ross, Trump nominee for Commerce Secretary, talked tariffs on China during Wednesday’s confirmation hearings. The billionaire investor, who was instrumental in turning around ailing steel mills such as LTV Steel in 2002, appears to be a solid supporter of President-elect Trump’s strong-arm approach to trade. “One of the things that we do need very […]
Steel mill lead times, the amount of time it takes for steel mills to produce new orders of hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized or Galvalume products, continue to remain extended according to the results of Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted during the course of this week. Hot rolled lead times […]
Flat rolled steel buyers reported the domestic steel mills as not willing to negotiate prices on flat rolled steel products. This is a continuation of the position we reported beginning in November after the initial flat rolled steel price increase announcements being made in late October. Only 17 percent of the respondents to our flat […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the tenth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
The January Empire State Manufacturing Survey in January declined -1.1 from December to 6.5. The general business index reading was positive for the third consecutive month indicating that business activity continues to expand in New York State. New orders and shipments remained positive but fell by 7.3 and 1.3 points, respectively. Unfilled orders posted a […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the ninth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports, both national and regional, are fundamental to our understanding of where the various steel consuming sectors are headed. In this analysis we are examining multiple data sources to try to develop a broad base of understanding. This data complements other more specific information on construction and manufacturing activities […]
During the first week of January Steel Market Update conducted our flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We invited 630 people associated with the flat rolled steel industry to participate. Of those responding 46 percent were manufacturers, 41 percent were steel service centers or wholesalers, 7 percent were steel mills, 4 percent steel trading companies […]
According to Baker Hughes data from January 6, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 665 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 7 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 4 to 529 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 135 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
On a single data basis both our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index and Future Sentiment Index are at the record highs for our index. Current Sentiment, which is how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment, came in at +71 this week. […]
Flat rolled lead times remained essentially unchanged from what we reported during the middle of December. Steel mill order books appear to be “good” without creating excessive anxiety at their customers. At the moment, we will call lead times as being not too short and not too long but, just about right… Since early Tuesday […]
Steel mills continue to feel comfortable when negotiating with their customers. We found that only one quarter of the steel buyers responding to our survey for this week reported the mills as willing to discuss the possibility of adjusting (lowering) steel spot prices. We found this to be consistent across all flat rolled products: hot […]
Global manufacturing reached a three year high in December, finishing out the year with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7, up from 52.1 in November. After a flat first half, the second half of 2016 showed steady growth in the manufacturing sector. The December survey by IHS Markit indicates global manufacturing is growing at […]
Precision Metalforming Association members are looking forward to a spike in economic activity in the first quarter of 2017. The December 2016 survey of 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada shows 43 percent are expecting improved activity in the next three months, up from 21 percent in November. New orders are expected to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the eighth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
The last month of the year was a strong one based on the data we just reviewed and have shared with you in the table at the end of this article. SMU Price Momentum Index finished both the month and the year pointing toward higher prices in the coming 30 to 60 days. Our Sentiment […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. Looking back from the […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 30, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 658 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 5 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 2 to 525 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 132 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. Growth in the overall economy expanded for the 91st consecutive month, said ISM. The PMI for December reached 54.7, climbing 1.5 percentage points from November. The new orders index jumped 7.2 points to 60.2 from November and […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3 points in December to register 54.6. The Barometer has averaged 54.3 during fourth quarter, the highest in two years, and suggests that economic conditions have improved somewhat, said MNI Indicators. The index for New Orders lost 6.7 points giving up the gains it made in November that pushed the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the seventh consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated December 16th, Figure 1. The dollar as of that date was stronger than at any time since April […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. The official news release from the Conference Board is included beneath our analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The December report was very encouraging and came on the heels of an excellent […]
For the first time this month we will summarize six data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these six sources separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the […]