Average lead times for spot orders of steel, including all types of products, have shortened slightly in the past two weeks. Hot rolled lead times now average around four weeks, cold rolled and Galvalume around six weeks, and galvanized down to nearly six and a half weeks. Lead times for plate are now less than […]
Global steel demand will top 1.75 billion metric tons by the end of next year, despite economic headwinds in many parts of the globe, predicts the World Steel Association in its April 2019 Short Range Outlook. Worldwide, steel demand will increase by 1.3 percent this year to 1,735 Mt, followed by further 1 percent growth […]
A six point increase to 10.1 in the general business index of the Empire State Manufacturing survey indicated a modest rise in manufacturing activity in April. New York manufacturers reported a slight rise in new orders and shipments. The new orders index rose to 7.5 from 3.0 in March, while the shipments index increased to […]
Net job creation in March totaled 196,000, an increase from an upwardly revised 33,000 in February. January was revised up by 1,000 to 312,000. Rising employment and wages are the main contributor to GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, this is one […]
U.S. manufacturing lost jobs in March, but has had strong job growth in the last 12 months. In March, 182,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government added 14,000, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. […]
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for 2019, but increased it in each year 2020 through 2024. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. On April 9, the following was published in the IMF blog: “After strong growth in 2017 and early […]
Flat rolled steel inventories at the service centers rose at the end of March, according to the data providers working with Steel Market Update. SMU has been collecting service center data for almost two years now. Six months back, with the help of the CRU team, we changed the way we were collecting and the […]
US Midwest HRC price volatility has increased markedly in recent months as government policy and inelasticity of domestic supply have led to large variations in physical market price. Concurrently, volume and open interest on the CME’s HRC futures and options contracts, settled on CRU’s US Midwest HRC price (“The CRU”) has surged as physical market […]
Steel Market Update conducted an analysis of flat rolled and plate steel market trends last week. One of the key trends we watch closely is the relationship between how service centers are handling spot prices to their customers and what support is being given to domestic steel mill price increases. With the two increases announced […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The market had hoped that China would unveil a large stimulus package at the March NPC, but any expectation of a large boost to world growth and commodities demand has not come, yet. The current stimulus package is smaller, less potent and less positive for commodities demand than previous […]
Following a slower than expected first quarter, activity has begun to pick up in the nonprime/secondary steel market, report service center executives. “Maybe that’s good news for April going forward,” said Lisa Goldenberg, president of Delaware Steel of Pennsylvania, Fort Washington, Pa. Nonprime or secondary steel includes coils that are rejected because they failed to […]
SMU was speaking to a coated sheet steel buyer this afternoon about flat rolled steel prices. He made an interesting observation about how the markets have become quite complicated. When looking at galvanized, for example, there are different starting points for light gauge, medium gauge and heavy gauge steels. There are also regional differences (southern […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This is a quarterly analysis that SMU performs using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the […]
Data in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index were slightly more optimistic this week, though comments from respondents reflect concerns in the market about trade issues, steel demand and the economy. We also continue to see Current Sentiment as being less optimistic than at this time one year ago. However, our Future Sentiment Index […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 19 to 1,025, with oil rigs up 15 and gas rigs up 4. Compared to this time last year, the 1,025 count is […]
President Trump’s now aborted threat this week to close the Mexican border over immigration prompted a coalition of industries to express their concerns about border trade. In a letter sent to National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney, the coalition discussed the need for all […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs in March primarily due to employment losses in the auto industry. In February, the sector gained 1,000 jobs, but was far below the average of 22,000 jobs gained per month in the prior 12 months. Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul said of the latest employment figures: […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 116 (April) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and four months from becoming the longest ever. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 118 (June) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and two […]
The majority of respondents to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week reported mills willing to talk price in every product category, even plate, which may say something about the current state of steel demand. About 76 percent of respondents said the mills are open to price negotiations on hot rolled, up 20 points from the […]
Lead times for spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steels are now about a week longer than they were in January, but have seen only small upticks in the past month. Lead times for plate and Galvalume have actually shortened slightly. Hot rolled lead times now average a bit more than four […]
Editor’s note: Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence, a highly regarded economist and popular speaker, will once again make an appearance at Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit, scheduled for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta. Click here for more information about the conference or to register. Below are excerpts of his recent comments on the likelihood […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Selling the family business “is not just a personal choice, but what’s best for the company,” said Roy Berlin of Berlin Metals one year after selling his Hammond, Ind., service center operation to Olympic Steel. Speaking with Steel Market Update on his first day of retirement, “the first day of the rest of my life,” […]
Durable goods orders fell 1.6 percent in February, according to the latest Department of Commerce report. Core capital goods orders, which exclude defense and aircraft and are considered a measure of business investment, slipped 0.1 percent after a revised increase of 0.9 percent in January. Orders and shipments for primary metals and fabricated metal products […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]
The March ISM manufacturing PMI bounced back from a two-year low recorded in February. The Index rose to 55.3 from 54.2 supported by gains in new orders and employment, said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute of Supply Management business survey committee. Indexes for new orders and production rose 1.9 and 1.0 percentage points to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Data released for Q1 2019 have been largely positive. The ISM Manufacturing survey reflects a moderating rate of expansion, but the reading of 54.2 in February shows a solid level of manufacturing activity with new orders, output, employment and backlogs squarely in “expansion” territory. Housing disappointed in 2018, but […]
Looking back at the key indicators for the month of March, steel prices saw a modest increase following mill price increase announcements in January and February. The benchmark price for hot rolled averaged $698 per ton, according to SMU data, up $16 from February, but flat with the price in January. Prices for cold rolled […]
April saw steel prices lose momentum as hot rolled dipped to an average of $662, cold rolled to $803 and galvanized G90 to less than $900 per ton. Even plate, which has been in tight supply, has now moderated to around $964 per ton from prices near or above $1,000 earlier in the year. Steel […]