SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: No Change
Written by Tim Triplett
June 20, 2019
The market is keeping a close eye on mill lead times, hoping for some sign they are extending and perhaps signaling a pickup in order activity at the mills. Steel Market Update’s latest numbers, which show little change in lead times, are sure to disappoint.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the lighter the order activity at the mills and the more likely they are to negotiate on price. The average lead time for hot rolled is now below three and a half weeks, cold rolled is slightly above five weeks, and galvanized and Galvalume are now less than six weeks—roughly two weeks shorter than this time last year when steel demand was much stronger.
Hot rolled lead times now average 3.43 weeks, nearly the same as in early June. Hot rolled lead times were at 5.24 weeks in mid-June 2018.
Cold rolled lead times, at 5.32 weeks, show just a slight uptick from the beginning of the month. Cold rolled lead times at this time last year averaged 7.27 weeks.
Average lead times for galvanized remain unchanged since SMU’s last market canvass at 5.84 weeks. Galvanized lead times averaged 7.76 weeks last June. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume shortened to 5.88 weeks from 6.38 weeks in early June, according to SMU data.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel now average 4.50 weeks, down from 4.70 weeks earlier this month and from 7.33 weeks one year ago when plate was in tight supply.
Short lead times across all product categories tell the tale of weak steel demand and help to explain why there has been so much downward pressure on flat rolled and plate steel pricing.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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