When the public first learned the government was shutting down, many of us thought, “Glad I don’t work for Uncle Sam!” Now, as the shutdown extends its record as the longest in U.S. history, the effects are being felt well beyond the households of government employees. Even here at Steel Market Update. With government data […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Recessions are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization tasked with identifying when a recession starts and ends, as back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth. […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. This month we have revamped our recession monitor report to make it more time sensitive. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that steel demand is related to GDP but is vastly […]
If the prevailing view in the market proves correct, steel mills will announce a price increase soon—but it won’t stick. Two out of three steel executives responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week believe the mills will announce an increase in flat rolled prices by the end of January. But given […]
Last week, Steel Market Update concluded our early January analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel market trends. One of the key areas we watch is how service centers are handling spot pricing of flat rolled steels to their end customers. Over the years we have learned that when service centers are raising prices, […]
Steel Market Update asked: Are the Section 232 tariffs negatively impacting your business? The market is evenly split on the subject. About half of those responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week—primarily service center and OEM executives—say they have been hurt by the tariffs, while the other half say the tariffs have had no direct effect. […]
Mill lead times turned the corner on the new year little changed from mid-December. At less than four weeks for hot rolled and around six weeks for cold rolled and coated products, lead times for spot orders of most products are as short as they have been in over a year. While still in high […]
Steel Market Update’s first canvass of the new year shows a subtle shift in the price dynamic between mills and steel buyers. No doubt, buyers still have a lot of leverage and most mills are usually willing to talk price to secure the order. But SMU’s findings show a slight tightening in negotiations. In the […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index began the year with another slight dip in optimism, as measured by both the Current Sentiment and the Future Sentiment three-month moving averages. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), […]
With the partial government shutdown in its 20th day, the political standoff in Washington over President Trump’s border wall remains focused on his $5.7 billion budget request. The larger question is whether a construction project of the scale the president has proposed is even feasible, at any cost. From a steel industry standpoint, the project […]
President Trump’s border wall could be made of three million tons of U.S. steel if he is able to get the funding for construction. In a bid to make his request more palatable to Democrats, Trump said the wall could be made of domestic steel from the companies he has made great again. “I’ll have […]
The U.S. labor market finished 2018 on a strong note. December was the first month ever for total nonfarm payrolls to exceed 150 million, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Unlike the Commerce Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) remains funded under the current government shutdown. […]
Employment gains in manufacturing and construction were strong in December, as 301,000 jobs were created in the private sector and 11,000 in government, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees […]
With finished steel prices continuing their second-half decline through the end of 2018, the market is holding its collective breath to see if the mills announce a price hike this month. Many believe they will try to raise prices, but most are doubtful they will succeed. Following is what industry sources told SMU this week: […]
Perhaps it’s because the year started out with so much promise that the end of 2018 seemed so uninspiring. On balance, most in the steel business would call 2018 a good year, some even a great year. But few look forward to 2019 with the same optimism and confidence they felt a year ago at […]
Job growth in 2018 shattered expectations, adding 312,000 jobs to the economy in December and 2.6 million for the year. Wages increased 3.9 percent after years of marginal growth, due in part to the shrinking labor pool available to fill vacancies. The construction industry saw unemployment decrease to a historic low of 5.1 percent in […]
The Association of Women in the Metal Industries (AWMI) will have new leadership beginning in 2019. Sonya Malvick was elected president of AWMI at the organization’s annual conference in St. Petersburg, Fla., in November. Malvick is a 25-year veteran of the steel industry, beginning her career at Zalk Joseph Fabricators and later moving to the […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined week over week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 8 to 1,075, with oil rigs down 8 to 877 rigs, gas rigs unchanged at 198 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at […]
The year ended on a cautionary note with steel demand, prices and buyers’ sentiment showing downward momentum in December. Prices for flat rolled products continued their fourth-quarter declines with hot rolled dipping to $754, cold rolled to $865 and galvanized to $931 in December. Plate is the notable exception, holding steady around $1,000 per ton, […]
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to expand in December, but at a much lower pace, according to the latest ISM Report on Business. The December PMI fell 5.2 percentage points to 54.1 with indexes for new orders slipping 11 points and production slipping 5.3 points from November. The average PMI score for 2018 was […]
Global manufacturing slid to its lowest level in 27 months, falling from a PMI of 52.0 in November to 51.5 in December, according to the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Manufacture of consumer goods was the only bright spot in December, growing to an eight-month high. Investment and intermediate goods were […]
Twas the night before Christmas 2017 Steel buyers were happy All nestled in their beds No thoughts of turmoil running about in their heads Little did they know Little did they dread 2018 was staring at them While dreams of sugar plums danced in their heads The last three months saw prices move […]
Service centers are perilously close to capitulation as the percentage of respondents reporting service centers as lowering spot prices continues to increase. Manufacturing companies are telling Steel Market Update that they are receiving lower and lower spot pricing from their service center suppliers. In our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted this past […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. has strengthened its position in the global scrap market since Q1 2016. This is an analysis that we perform quarterly. We believe […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. In three months through November year over year, China’s steel production grew 18 times faster than the rest of the world. (Not a typo!) […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The growth of U.S. GDP in third-quarter 2018 came in at 3.36 percent, but the mix of contributors was concerning. On Friday, the Bureau […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. dollar now has the highest value on the foreign exchange markets in over 16 years. In the last month, the dollar strengthened […]
Continual controversy over trade and tariffs, volatile steel prices and unrest on Wall Street have clearly left many in the industry anxious and pessimistic about the year to come. Only about 20 percent of the steel executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect 2019 to be a solid growth year […]
The Architecture Billings Index remained positive in November and rose over four points to 54.7, according to the Wednesday release by the American Institute of Architects (AIA). This is the 14th consecutive month of increasing demand for architectural firms’ services and the strongest billings growth figure in 10 months. The project inquiries index rose to […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index ended the year on a “down” note as our Current Sentiment Index, as measured this week as a single data point, was the lowest reading we have seen over the past two years. When viewed as a three-month-moving average, which helps smooth out the data and provide a clearer […]