Category: SMU

Given the news about tariffs and bringing back industries to the US, a brief look back in time may show how our economy changes with technological advances and the shifting economies of scale. 

Raw steel mill output ticked higher last week, now up to the highest weekly rate recorded in over seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

After holding its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil steady for three weeks at $930 per short ton (st), Nucor lowered the price this week by $20/st.

We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through April 30.

The US Commerce Department has set up an “inclusions process” to add derivative aluminum and steel articles within the scope of the new Section 232 tariffs.

With so much happening in the news cycle, we want to make it easier. Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.

US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices edged lower again this week, slipping four weeks in a row now. Most offshore markets mirrored the move, ticking down marginally as well.

Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.

Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.

Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.

If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025

US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil remained unchanged this week.

United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

The constant flow of information we all receive can be a bit overwhelming, but SMU is here to help with a weekly snapshot.

Chinese export prices for longs were almost steady this week, while those for flats generally declined as producers cut prices to secure deals.

Global raw steel production increased in March, according to the latest figures released by the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Chinese steel export prices are expected to remain stable or fall in the coming weeks as trade restrictions rise and tensions between the country and the US escalate.

Recent Federal Reserve data paints a positive picture of the US manufacturing sector. Manufacturing indicators remained strong through February and March figures

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.

The pig iron markets have been quiet for the last several weeks, as tariff implementation on imports into the US became a reality. There has been debate on which party will have to pay the tariff. A recent transaction could provide the answer to that question.

US domestic sheet price gains have begun to slow as previously pulled-forward demand has led to a decline in orders.

Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.