Category: US

A fierce flat price rally started this week that saw the nearby months rally by over $120/ short tons, exceeding the contract highs seen in February ahead of the first batch of tariffs.

All districts reported "hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” according to the Beige Book.

Following eight consecutive weeks of declines, sheet and plate prices saw some upward movement this week in the wake of last Friday’s Section 232 tariff increase announcement. Gains varied by product.

The speed and scale of recent moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues.

May marks the third consecutive month US manufacturing activity declined, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.

The Chicago Business Barometer reports that decreases in new orders, order backlogs, and softer production pulled the index down by 4.1-points to 40.5, in May.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-May, SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices modestly recovered in our latest survey.

The evolution of the U.S. HRC futures curve since my last update on April 17 tells a familiar story: fleeting optimism giving way to renewed caution.

Mill lead times shrunk this week for all of the sheet products tracked by SMU and held steady on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most steel buyers responding to our latest market survey report that domestic mills are willing to talk price to secure new orders. Mill negotiability has continued to rise across all sheet and plate products we track, now at some of the highest levels recorded since late 2024.

Sheet and plate prices marginally declined again this week for the second consecutive week, pausing the strong downward trend seen from April through early May.

Which way will the herd move?

For the third month in a row, architecture firms reported a reduction in billings through April, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index release.

Most sheet and plate prices edged lower again this week, albeit at a slower pace compared to the movements seen over the last seven weeks. Buyers remain cautious and hesitant to hold onto much inventory, citing lingering demand concerns, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a potentially weakening scrap market in June.

The budget proposal has big implications for steel and manufacturing.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Manufacturing activity in New York state declined for the third consecutive month, according to the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Responding firms continue to forecast weaker business conditions in the coming months.

Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

All of SMU’s sheet and plate steel price indices declined this week, easing by $30-40 per short ton (st) on average since early May. Prices continue to slide lower as buyers remain on the sidelines, wary of holding much excess inventory and expecting further declines.

Despite the hand-wringing and head-scratching about the impact of President Trump’s tariff policy, the HRC futures market has been relatively subdued since our last writing of this article.

Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.

Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.

Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.

The Chicago Business Barometer declined in April, reversing March’s gains, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

PMA’s April report shows that only 16% of surveyed manufacturers anticipate an increase in economic activity in the next three months (down from 23% in March)

Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.

The CME Midwest HRC futures market’s response to Trump’s election and subsequent comments about blanket 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was surprisingly counterintuitive.

Architecture firms said billings continued to decline in March, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.