Contributor: Michael Cowden

I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).

Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.

President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.

Nippon Steel has agreed to “invest heavily in U.S. Steel as opposed to own it,” President Donald Trump said on Friday during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. U.S. Steel is “a very important company” and was once “the greatest company in the world”. Of potential foreign ownership of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker, Trump said, “the concept, psychologically, not good."

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price of $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. The steelmaker is also seeking $1,050/st for cold-rolled product and $1,000/st for coated material, according to a letter to customers dated Wednesday.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.

U.S. Steel has increased sheet prices by $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker has also set a new target price of $800/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil, they said.

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

U.S. Steel’s losses widened in the fourth quarter on lower steel prices, weaker demand, and startup costs relating to the expansion of its Big River Steel EAF sheet mill in Arkansas. But the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said it expected results to improve in 2025 as Big River 2 – the project to double capacity at the Osceola, Ark., mill - gains steam.

SMU’s sheet prices were mixed this week. Hot-rolled (HR) coil and plate notched gains while prices for coated products stagnated or dipped lower. Our HR price now stands at $700 per short ton (st) on average, up $15/st from last week and marking the highest level for HR prices since $705/st in early October. SMU’s […]

Nucor Corp. posted sharply lower fourth quarter earnings on Monday driven in part by lower average selling prices at its steel mills. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker also warned that first-quarter results might not be much better in commentary released with earnings data. But Nucor said that it expected better times later in 2025. It also hinted at the possibility of ramped up trade restrictions – including more stringent Section 232 tariffs.

President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.

We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.

Steel Dynamic Inc.’s profits narrowed in the fourth quarter of 2024 on lower prices, import competition, and continued losses from its sheet mill in Sinton, Texas. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker said results also suffered from an unplanned outage at its sheet mill in Butler, Ind. That reduced sales volumes by approximately 50,000 tons.

Sheet and plate prices remained in a holding pattern this week as the market awaited more specifics on potential Trump administration tariffs.

President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that he was considering placing tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico. The president said the tariffs could go into effect as soon as Feb. 1. President Trump threatened the tariffs as he signed a raft of executive orders in front of reporters in the Oval […]

What’s been the impact of tariff threats on prices and demand? In short, not much – or at least that was the case when I was writing this column on Sunday afternoon. Spot activity for Canadian material, for example, has been put on hold over the last few weeks while the market waits to see what the new tariff landscape might look like.

It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.

Steel prices ticked lower this week for four of the five products SMU tracks, according to our latest canvass of the sheet and plate markets. Following last week’s bump, our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, and plate indices all edged lower this week by $5-15 per short ton (st) on average. Galvalume was the only […]

I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.

Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell will join SMU for our first Community Chat of 2025. We’ll talk about what to expect from the incoming Trump administration, the changing trade and tariff landscape – and what it all means for domestic steelmakers, service centers, and manufacturers. Don’t miss out! Mark your calendar for Jan. 15 at 11 am ET.

Steel prices didn't start the new year with a bang - but they didn't bust, either, according to SMU's first survey of 2025. On the sheet side, market participants generally predicted that prices should move higher this year on the coated trade petition and the potential for tariffs under President-elect Trump. But most buyer sources weren’t eager to load up given the uncertain timing and scope of the potential tariffs. They also cited increasing domestic capacity and modest demand.

I’m not sure what to say about President Biden’s blocking Nippon Steel’s deal for U.S. Steel that hasn’t already been said. I think it’s fair to say, as U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt did, that this was ultimately all about politics and had very little to do with national security. SMU has tried to remain […]

We never eat chicken on New Year’s Day. My Irish-Catholic grandmother thought it was bad luck – because chickens scratch backward. And one should start the year looking forward. But it’s hard to avoid the fact that we’re carrying a lot 2024 issues (and even 2023 ones) forward into 2025. That’s not all bad. We’re starting 2025 with SMU’s hot-rolled coil price at $675/per short ton (st). That’s $370/st lower than $1045/st at the outset of 2023, according to our interactive pricing tool. I think we can safely say that a decline of that magnitude won’t happen in 2025.

The Community Chat last Wednesday with ITR economist Taylor St. Germain is worth listening to if you couldn’t tune in live. You can find the replay and Taylor’s slide deck here. You can also find SMU reporter Stephanie Ritenbaugh’s writeup of the webinar here. Taylor is Alan Beaulieu’s protégé at ITR. Many of you know Alan from his talks at SMU Steel Summit. I found Taylor’s analysis just as insightful as Alan’s.

Cleveland-Cliffs plans to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $800 per short ton (st). Cliffs said the increase announcement coincides with the opening of its February order book for both contract and spot tons of HR.

It’s been another week of torrid speculation when it comes Trump and tariffs. And another week of mostly flat price movement when it comes to steel sheet and plate. As far as Trump and tariffs go, I think I might have lost track. We've potentially got 10% blanket tariffs on imports from China, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 100% tariffs on the BRICs, and 200% on Caterpillar. Canada might be the 51st state. Mexico could be the 52nd state. But all can be resolved if you stop by Mar-a-Lago and kiss the ring?