SMU Apparent Excess/Deficit Model: Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 7:55 PM Written by 

Late last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released service center shipment and inventories data for the United States and Canada. We published both a general recap and a more complex analysis of the data in Thursday and Sunday issues of SMU.

Steel Market Update has a proprietary model that we apply against the MSCI data in order to determine whether flat rolled distributors’ inventories are in Apparent Excess or Deficit (or balanced). We then use a second model to project what we believe will happen during the next five months. the results of these models are shared every month with our Premium level members. Today we are going to share the data with everyone.

First, let’s look back to see how well we did with our forecast for November:


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John Packard

John Packard is the President and Publisher of Steel Market Update. Since 1977, he has been an active participant in the flat rolled steel business in North America. His background provides the unique flavor and quality of Steel Market Update. John has held positions in the service center, steel mill and trading company segments of the flat rolled steel industry. John founded Steel Market Update, Inc. in August 2008. John can be reached via email at: or by phone: 800-432-3475.

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