Sheet prices are down yet again, with our hot-rolled coil price now at its lowest point since late October 2020. The question two years ago was how far prices might rise as demand snapped back from the pandemic faster than supply could be brought online to meet it. The question now is when and where […]
Sheet and plate prices fell across the board once again this week as market participants continue to question when and where the market might bottom. Some not long ago predicted that hot-rolled coil prices wouldn’t fall below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). Our average price is now well below $700 per ton, with some […]
US plate prices were unchanged this week — the first sideways move in nearly a month. Tags had been eroding slowly of late though buyers have remained largely on the sidelines of the spot market, focused on managing inventories. Nucor’s $120-per-ton ($6-per-cwt) price cut on plate back in mid-September now serves as the top end […]
I want to give a shoutout to the North American Steel Alliance (NASA) for giving me the opportunity to provide a keynote address at their Forecast Conference in Chicago earlier this week. And I want to take a minute to dive deeper into SMU’s lead time figures, one of the indicators I highlighted at the event as […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports offer little to no cost advantage over domestic steel at this time, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, HRC imported from Germany and Italy are theoretically more expensive than domestic steel, and Far East Asian HRC offers just a […]
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week across all sheet and plate products. It’s the continuation of a mostly downward trend on the sheet side that we’ve seen since mid/late April. Hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products were all down $20–25 per ton ($1–1.25 per cwt). Plate prices slipped a more modest $10 per ton. SMU’s […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. expects a continuation of the trend it saw in the third quarter of increasing shipments to the automotive sector. This should support steel pricing going forward, the steelmaker said in its Q3 earnings report released on Tuesday, Oct. 25. “Shipments to our automotive clients significantly improved in Q3, achieving a level among the highest in […]
The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) narrowly voted to revoke anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Brazilian hot-rolled coil. The move comes after US trade officials decided to let duties on Brazilian cold-rolled coil expire – a change that has raised the ire of some domestic mills. The revocation is notable because it could allow for […]
US sheet prices continue to slide, and the weakness in the domestic market has buyers confident that they can get domestic suppliers to negotiate. For hot-rolled coil, imports have not been very advantageous relative to futures. There have been some workable offers for tandem mill products. But buyers have been more inclined to buy domestically or […]
Flat steel and tubular producer JSW Steel (USA) Inc. saw lower operating results in the quarter ended Sept. 30, with plate and pipe production and plate sales the only areas showing signs of on-year growth. According to Indian parent company JSW Steel Ltd.’s fiscal second quarter 2023 results, production and sales of slab and hot-rolled […]
The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR spot physical indexes have remained anchored just above the mid-$700/net ton area with one more week to go before the […]
This week, foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers little to no cost advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Foreign prices now hold a theoretical discount of 0–1% over domestic steel, after adjusting foreign prices for estimated freight costs, trader margins, and tariffs. This relationship has teetered back and forth lately, with […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products were down in August, slipping to their second-lowest total year-to-date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency. August’s shipments totaled 8.04 million tons, a 0.9% decline from July’s 8.11 million tons. Apparent supply also saw a month-on-month (MoM) decline in August, down 1.3% […]
What a difference a week can make. The lack of clarity in the short-to-medium-term direction presently in steel seems to be stumping maybe even the best and the brightest of flat-rolled buyers. And perhaps as Michael Cowden indicated in SMU’s prior Final Thoughts, the steel market might be somewhere in the middle — in-between bearish […]
Steel prices trended lower again this week, the second consecutive week of moderate declines, according to Steel Market Update sources. Sheet prices declined between $10–30 per net ton compared to last week, now at levels not seen since late 2020. Plate prices were broadly unchanged from last week, but are slowly easing towards levels last […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices took split paths between eastern and western regions. Prices in Asia found support from restocking in China and supply disruptions in South Korea. Meanwhile, western markets remained weak, and we expect this to persist over the near term. October is the […]
Imported sheet and plate products arrived at US ports at a slower clip in August, resulting in them accounting for a lower share of the domestic market for the second straight month, according to a Steel Market Update analysis of import data from the US Commerce Department and domestic shipment figures from the American Iron […]
I made a contrarian case for optimism in my last Final Thoughts. Our latest survey results indicate I was more contrarian than I realized. For starters, there has been speculation in both the physical and futures markets that a strike or lockout at US Steel could catch buyers off guard and send prices spiraling upward. […]
The relationship between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices has stabilized in the last few weeks, according to Steel Market Update data. After briefly stalling in August, hot rolled prices have began to slide downwards again since the beginning of this month. Busheling scrap prices settled at down $45 per gross ton last week, the […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
The price advantaged once offered by foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) over domestic steel is gone, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price analysis. Foreign prices are now higher than domestic prices after adjusting for freight costs, trader margins, and tariffs. Domestic HRC is priced as much as 2% below current foreign prices. The gap between US and foreign […]
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report card on the US economy’s performance with its September jobs report. The results, though surprisingly upbeat, point to potentially more troublesome days ahead, both personally and collectively for the steel industry. So here are just a few thoughts to ponder as October nears […]
Domestic sheet prices fell sharply this week, marking their first substantial drop following nearly two months of mostly sideways or modestly downward moves. Another month of falling scrap prices appears to have been the catalyst. Another is this: Mills that had talked about discipline on the way up are now fighting for market share, sources […]
US plate prices have been unchanged for nearly three weeks. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t under pressure. Buyers remain mostly on the sidelines of the spot market and are working through inventories as demand slows to a crawl. The market has been quiet since Nucor announced a $120-per-ton ($6-per-cwt) price cut on discrete plate […]
The temptation to purchase foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) at a bargain has all but faded again, with adjusted foreign prices now offering little or no advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, foreign HRC prices for two of the three regions […]
The spread between hot-rolled coil and galvanized base prices has narrowed further since our September update, now standing at a 28-week low. This is now the second lowest level seen in the past 10 months, just behind the March 2022 low of $300 per net ton. The relationship between hot rolled and galvanized prices has […]
The ongoing trend for steel sheet prices has remained mostly flat over the past several weeks, and this week was really no exception. We’ve seen a tightening of spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and those for cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume. And the trend of narrowing spreads is even more pronounced when it comes to plate. […]
Sheet prices continued to tread water this week, with modest declines in hot-rolled coil and galvanized base prices offset in part by minor gains in cold-rolled coil and in Galvalume. Plate prices were also flat, following declines in prior weeks, on the heels of Nucor on Monday announcing unchanged pricing for discrete plate. Our benchmark […]