Through the 23rd of September foreign steel import licenses continue to suggest that September imports could exceed the 4.0 million net tons reported in the final census numbers for May 2014. The license data suggests that the biggest surge in imports will move through the domestic steel mills as semi-finished import licenses are trending toward […]
Zinc prices hit a three year high in September at $2390/t, escalating quickly from the mid $1900s in March. Although the prices have moderated in the last few weeks zinc, as of September 18, zinc was at $2247/metric ton on the LME index. The soaring prices are due to production shortfalls and higher demand. The […]
The Canadian International Trade Tribune (the Tribunal) determined last Friday that there is reasonable indication that dumping and subsidization of OCTG products from nine countries have caused or may cause injury to the domestic market. The countries named in the investigation are Chinese Taipei, the Republic of India, the Republic of Indonesia, the Republic of […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of August 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in August were 74,880,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.3 percent from the previous month but an increase of 8.5 percent […]
The following articles are for our Premium level customers. Thank you again for your business. We also want you to know that the latest imports by product, port and country are in the website (must be logged in as Premium customer in order to access the data) as is our latest Survey data which was […]
Nucor is expecting higher profitability for its sheet steel, structural, bar and plate operations for third quarter. In their quarterly guidance, Nucor noted that manufactured goods, including energy and automotive, are their strongest markets. The high level of imports continues to pressure prices downward. Growth in the residential market has benefited the fabricated construction products […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
The following report was prepared by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC which is a company specializing in hot rolled, ferrous scrap and other “futures” contracts or financial derivatives. Today he discusses the broader financial markets, hot rolled steel futures (HRC), iron ore and ferrous scrap futures (BUS) trading on the CME. Andre Marshall […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the period May through July was 4,942,917 tons, up […]
For months there have been rumors circulating in the marketplace that the domestic steel industry was contemplating filing dumping suits against the Chinese on cold rolled and potentially a number of Asian countries on galvanized and/or Galvalume products. To date there have not been suits filed and the foreign steel continues to arrive at ever-greater […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period May – July year over year (y/y) led by cold rolled which was up by 19.4 percent, (Table 1). In total on this basis sheet products were up by 14.8 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 82,520,000 metric tons, an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 12.8 percent […]
I am hearing that the closing date for both AK Steel and Steel Dynamics (SDI) on the Severstal Dearborn and Columbus assets could come as soon as next Monday, September 15, 2014. We have two articles in tonight’s edition of SMU regarding imports, One from Peter Wright’s perspective and one that I worked on most […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter to the editor from a flat rolled steel service center. With contract negotiations heating up we thought the letter may spark a dialogue between the steel mills and their customers: John, we are a Mid-West Steel Service Center and attended your Steel Market Update Atlanta conference. We gained […]
Apparent steel supply for July was 10,588,648 net tons, the highest figure Steel Market Update has in its recorded history back to January 2010. Steel Market Update calculates apparent steel supply by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. July supply represents a 1,383,999 ton or 15.0 percent increase compared […]
Steel Market Update featured Timna Tanners, Metals & Mining Analyst, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and John Anton, Director of Steel Services, IHS Global, at a luncheon presentation at the recent Steel Summit. The topic was commodity and steel forecasts and consolidation of the industry. As usual the two disagreed on some topics and sparked some […]
Are foreign steel prices too low or are US steel prices too high? That is a question faced by trade litigation attorneys Robert Schagrin and Lewis Leibowitz at the recent SMU Steel Summit conference in Atlanta. There is a $300 delta between China and US prices and a $200 delta between Europe and the US […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released final census data for July steel imports this past week. Total imports were 3,858,692 net tons which was 247,387 tons greater than what we saw during the month of June. License data is pointing toward a slightly lower total volume for total steel imports during the month of August. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The August ISM Purchasing Manufacturing Index increased 1.9 points to a reading of 59.0, its highest reading since March 2011. Survey respondents report business is strong but expressed concern over geopolitical issues. New orders and production each increased 3.3 percent to 66.7 and 64.5, respectively. The new orders index was the highest seen since April […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA & Canada) hot rolled prices. Actual HRC price spreads can vary based on freight costs, trader margins and other factors. SMU compares the world export price with adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc., against the spot […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in the Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the […]
Falls Church, Va. August 26, 2014. Steel imports into the United States continued to grow in July, expanding by more than 6 percent from June and nearly 56 percent from a year earlier. July imports totaled 3.8 million net tons, 221,000 net tons more than in June. Imports from South Korea and Russia showed the […]
Since last week licenses for foreign steel to be imported into the United States during the month of August have retreated slightly and the latest data is now leaning toward import levels to be very close to the just released Preliminary Census number for July of 3.8 million net tons. At this moment, and I […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that Texas manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in August. The production index in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey registered at 6.8 in August, falling from 19.1 in July. The new orders index fell 11 points to 2.2. The shipment index registered a 16.4 point drop to 6.4, […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) had been hearing that we should expect sideways scrap prices as we move into September. However, over the last couple of working days the signals are now pointing toward a strong sideways to slightly higher tilt to ferrous scrap pricing. We have heard numbers could go up as high as $10 […]
The US International Trade Commission announced Friday that it will impose anti-dumping duties on imports from six of the nine countries accused by U.S. steel producers of dumping OCTG in the US market. The decision includes Korea, who was previously excluded in the preliminary decision, India, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam. The Philippines and Thailand […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, continues at very optimistic levels. However, our Index has seen some erosion of enthusiasm as our Index has dropped 9 points since we recorded our record high of […]
With August steel imports looking like they may exceed May’s high of over 4 million tons and the recent influx of steel at the Port of Houston, Steel Market Update asked other U.S. ports to give their assessment of steel volume and port conditions. Port of Los Angeles “The Port of Los Angeles has seen […]